PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Le Havre
Shots10 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession41%59%
Corners1 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ayumu Seko · Le Havre · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedArouna Sangante · Le Havre · 59′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKenny Lala · Stade Brestois 29 · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBrendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29 · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Boufal · Le Havre · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSimon Ebonog · Le Havre · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKenny Quetant · Le Havre · 55′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Boufal · Le Havre · 44′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 71′ · 0.10 xG · goalRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 45′ · 0.14 xG · goalIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 60′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 41′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLucas Tousart · Stade Brestois 29 · 89′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 71′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 88′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.11 xG. Le Havre: 14 shots, 0 on target, 0.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Romain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 45′Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 1.11 xG · Le Havre 0.95 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11.5 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Stade Brestois 29's recent record differs from the season

weak

Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Stade Brestois 29
0Draws
1Le Havre
Le Havre — Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Le Havre in 3 · 6 too close

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/250.8 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.28 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2510.8 shots/match
13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/2512.8 shots/match
3.76 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/253.36 shots/match
4.32 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲4.08 shots/match
42.2%Possessionseason · 25/2546.6%
4.04 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.52 corners/match
5.52 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲4.64 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/251.96 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2513.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2524%
72%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2552%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 292.8
Le Havre36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2941.7
Le Havre17.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2938
Le Havre52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2986.1
Le Havre36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2951.4
Le Havre63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2925
Le Havre41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2944.5
Le Havre44.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/510 shots/match
3.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
36%Possession5/549.2%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/match▲Shots10/109.3 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match
39.3%Possession10/1047.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored25/250.8 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.28 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/match▲Shots25/2510.8 shots/match
3.76 shots/match▲Shots on target25/253.36 shots/match
42.2%Possession25/2546.6%
4.04 corners/matchCorners25/254.52 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards25/251.96 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2513.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 12 matches
1.54 goals/match▲Goals scored13/120.42 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/121.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots13/129.33 shots/match
4.54 shots/match▲Shots on target13/122.67 shots/match
44%Possession13/1246.1%
5 corners/matchCorners13/123.92 corners/match
1.77 cards/matchCards13/122.33 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1213.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.84 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Le Havre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match