Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 20:05 UTCFull timeStade Louis IIFull-time recap

Monaco

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2–0Full-time recap

Stade Brestois 29

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Monaco	Stade Brestois 29
Shots	10 shots/match	11 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	2.36 xG/match▲	1.37 xG/match
Possession	56%	44%
Corners	3 corners/match	8 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Monaco: 10 shots, 4 on target, 2.44 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 12 shots, 1 on target, 1.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 2.44 xG · Stade Brestois 29 1.38 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monaco's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Monaco's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monaco's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.73 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	1.73 goals/match	1.37 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible away split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.08 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.08 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Monaco have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.8%▲PossessionMonaco · Stade Brestois 2942.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Monaco	Stade Brestois 29	Baseline
Possession	52.8%	42.3%	49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Monaco

0Draws

1Stade Brestois 29

5 Dec 2025Stade Brestois 29 — Monaco · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Monaco favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 2 · 8 too close

1.73 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/261.31 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/261.38 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

12 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/2611.5 shots/match

13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/2613.3 shots/match

4.27 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/263.65 shots/match

4.23 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/264.31 shots/match

52.8%Possessionseason · 26/2642.3%

4.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/264.19 corners/match

4.54 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/265.42 corners/match

2.56 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.92 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2613.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/26▲35%

77%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2669%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monaco75

Stade Brestois 292.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monaco65.8

Stade Brestois 2939.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monaco34.3

Stade Brestois 2935.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monaco30.6

Stade Brestois 2986.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monaco79.2

Stade Brestois 2948.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monaco47.2

Stade Brestois 2930.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monaco56.2

Stade Brestois 2944.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

10.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match

50.2%Possession5/536.4%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

10.7 shots/matchShots10/1010.3 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match

51.3%Possession10/1039.8%

5 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match

2.22 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match

12.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches

1.73 goals/match▲Goals scored26/261.31 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed26/261.38 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12 shots/matchShots26/2611.5 shots/match

4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target26/263.65 shots/match

52.8%Possession26/2642.3%

4.69 corners/matchCorners26/264.19 corners/match

2.56 cards/matchCards25/251.92 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls26/2613.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 13 matches

2.07 goals/match▲Goals scored14/131.08 goals/match

1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/131.77 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.6 shots/match▲Shots14/139.08 shots/match

4.64 shots/match▲Shots on target14/132.77 shots/match

54%Possession14/1340.6%

4.86 corners/matchCorners14/133.38 corners/match

2.08 cards/matchCards13/122.08 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFouls14/1312.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.01 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4