PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade OcéaneFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

Lyon

WWLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLe HavreLyon
Shots12 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Expected goals0.74 xG/match1.06 xG/match▲
Possession35%65%
Corners2 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Enzo Koffi · Le Havre · 35′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Gourna-Douath · Le Havre · 10′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSofiane Boufal · Le Havre · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 81′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 19′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAbner Vinícius · Lyon · 27′ · 0.05 xG · on targetEndrick · Lyon · 67′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAdil Hamdani · Lyon · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Lyon · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Lyon · 12′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLoic Négo · Le Havre · 26′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLoic Négo · Le Havre · 64′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRoman Yaremchuk · Lyon · 65′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 30′ · 0.09 xG · on targetNicolás Tagliafico · Lyon · 47′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 51′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLoic Négo · Le Havre · 64′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRoman Yaremchuk · Lyon · 78′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Lyon · 41′ · 0.11 xG · on targetIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 6′ · 0.13 xG · on targetEndrick · Lyon · 76′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Lyon · 5′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedTyler Morton · Lyon · 52′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 12 shots, 4 on target, 0.75 xG. Lyon: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 0.75 xG · Lyon 1.13 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lyon have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Le Havre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.77 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.77 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lyon have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.2%▲PossessionLe Havre · Lyon55.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLe HavreLyonBaseline
Possession46.2%55.2%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Le Havre
0Draws
1Lyon
Lyon — Le Havre · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Le Havre favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lyon in 8 · 5 too close

0.77 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲1.54 goals/match
1.23 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/26▲1.04 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—
10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/26▲12 shots/match
12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/26▲11.5 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/26▲4.65 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/26▲3.69 shots/match
46.2%Possessionseason · 26/2655.2%
4.42 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/265.42 corners/match
4.54 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/264.54 corners/match
1.96 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/262.23 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2613.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/26▲50%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Le Havre36.1
Lyon86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Le Havre19.4
Lyon67.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Le Havre53.7
Lyon74.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Le Havre36.1
Lyon19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Le Havre55.5
Lyon75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Le Havre41.7
Lyon80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Le Havre41.7
Lyon77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
9.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲10.4 shots/match
1.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match
46%Possession5/556.4%
3 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
9.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲11 shots/match
2.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match
47%Possession10/1054.3%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
0.77 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲1.54 goals/match
1.23 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲1.04 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
10.8 shots/matchShots26/26▲12 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲4.65 shots/match
46.2%Possession26/2655.2%
4.42 corners/matchCorners26/265.42 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCards26/262.23 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls26/2613.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.07 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.43 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.36 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
12.1 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.9 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.86 shots/match
46.2%Possession14/1453.6%
4.86 corners/matchCorners14/144.93 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards14/142.5 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1413.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.85 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLe HavreLyon
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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