PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade Saint-Symphorien

Metz 3–4 Toulouse · Ligue 1

Metz

DLLLL
3–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse won 3–4.

Shots
1719
Shots on target
86
Expected goals
1.651.42
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse beat Metz 4–3. Recorded in this match (Metz – Toulouse): shots 17–19, shots on target 8–6, expected goals 1.65–1.42, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots17.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.54 shots/match ▲ShotsMetz · Toulouse13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMetzToulouseBaseline
Shots9.54 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against15.1 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metz have a visible home split

moderate

Metz's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season9.54 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match9.54 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots19 shotsMetz 17 shots, Toulouse 19 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots6 shotsMetz 8 shots, Toulouse 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.65 xG1.42 xGMetz 1.65 xG, Toulouse 1.42 xG
  • Possession50%50%Metz 50%, Toulouse 50%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersMetz 4 corners, Toulouse 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsMetz 10 fouls, Toulouse 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards3 cardsMetz 0 cards, Toulouse 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMario Sauer · Toulouse · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSeny Koumbassa · Toulouse · 81′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJessy Deminguet · Metz · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.02 xG · goalKoffi Kouao · Metz · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 68′ · 0.02 xG · on targetGiorgi Abuashvili · Metz · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJessy Deminguet · Metz · 43′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNathan Mbala · Metz · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJacen Russell-Rowe · Toulouse · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 42′ · 0.04 xG · on targetWaren Kamanzi · Toulouse · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJessy Deminguet · Metz · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJacen Russell-Rowe · Toulouse · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWaren Kamanzi · Toulouse · 37′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLucas Michal · Metz · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKoffi Kouao · Metz · 31′ · 0.09 xG · goalAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 6′ · 0.10 xG · goalNathan Mbala · Metz · 15′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMario Sauer · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAlpha Touré · Metz · 82′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Abuashvili · Metz · 88′ · 0.12 xG · goalEmersonn · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedNathan Mbala · Metz · 30′ · 0.16 xG · goalLucas Michal · Metz · 89′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedBouna Sarr · Metz · 39′ · 0.17 xG · on targetNathan Mbala · Metz · 67′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Gbamin · Metz · 36′ · 0.27 xG · on targetYann Gboho · Toulouse · 14′ · 0.33 xG · goalMario Sauer · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.33 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Metz: 17 shots, 8 on target, 1.67 xG. Toulouse: 19 shots, 6 on target, 1.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Nathan Mbala · Metz · 30′Koffi Kouao · Metz · 31′Giorgi Abuashvili · Metz · 88′Aron Dønnum · Toulouse · 6′Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 14′Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 45′Mario Sauer · Toulouse · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 1.67 xG · Toulouse 1.43 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Metz
0Draws
3Toulouse
Toulouse — Metz · Ligue 14–0
Metz — Toulouse · Ligue 10–1
Toulouse — Metz · Ligue 13–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Metz favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Metz26 matchesToulouse26 matches
0.96 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.42 goals/match
2.31 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.23 goals/match
1.01 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 1.38 xG/match
9.54 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 13.3 shots/match
3.12 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 4.54 shots/match
49.1% ●Possession26/2643.4%
4.08 corners/matchCorners26/26● 4.81 corners/match
1.84 cards/matchCards25/252.36 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2614.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMetzToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headMetz — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required