PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeRoazhon ParkFull-time recap

Rennes

WWWWL
0–0Full-time recap

Metz

LLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRennesMetz
Shots25 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.46 xG/match▲0.33 xG/match
Possession68%32%
Corners8 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Lilian Brassier · Rennes · 28′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMahamadou Nagida · Rennes · 76′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 38′ · 0.02 xG · on targetArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Szymański · Rennes · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMahamadou Nagida · Rennes · 72′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLilian Brassier · Rennes · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlpha Touré · Metz · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBouna Sarr · Metz · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKoffi Kouao · Metz · 4′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMahamadou Nagida · Rennes · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBouna Sarr · Metz · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rongier · Rennes · 10′ · 0.05 xG · on targetValentin Rongier · Rennes · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBreel Embolo · Rennes · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNathan Mbala · Metz · 87′ · 0.05 xG · on targetArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 12′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLudovic Blas · Rennes · 14′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBouna Sarr · Metz · 66′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 16′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYassir Zabiri · Rennes · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 85′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Szymański · Rennes · 13′ · 0.09 xG · on targetHabibou Diallo · Metz · 11′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 79′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 42′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Rouault · Rennes · 26′ · 0.28 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 25 shots, 8 on target, 1.51 xG. Metz: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 1.51 xG · Metz 0.38 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Metz's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.93 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.93 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rennes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsRennes · Metz9.44 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRennesMetzBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match9.44 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match15.4 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Rennes have a visible home split

moderate

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match13.4 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Rennes
0Draws
0Metz
Metz — Rennes · Ligue 10–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rennes favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Metz in 0 · 5 too close

1.59 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/270.93 goals/match
1.37 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/272.22 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—
13.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/279.44 shots/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2715.4 shots/match
4.63 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/273.07 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/275.85 shots/match
53.2%Possessionseason · 27/2748.4%
5.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274 corners/match
4.7 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/275 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/251.84 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2711.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2719%
78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2756%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rennes69.4
Metz47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rennes75
Metz12
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rennes48.1
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rennes69.4
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rennes36.1
Metz25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rennes80.6
Metz19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rennes70.2
Metz15.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals2/2—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
62%Possession5/545.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match
—Expected goals2/2—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match
56.9%Possession10/1047.1%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
1.63 cards/matchCards8/82.13 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
1.59 goals/match▲Goals scored27/270.93 goals/match
1.37 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/272.22 goals/match
—Expected goals2/2—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots27/279.44 shots/match
4.63 shots/match▲Shots on target27/273.07 shots/match
53.2%Possession27/2748.4%
5.44 corners/matchCorners27/274 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards25/251.84 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.86 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142.64 goals/match
—Expected goals2/1—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots14/147.71 shots/match
5.43 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.29 shots/match
53.9%Possession14/1447.4%
6.07 corners/matchCorners14/143.43 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards12/132.15 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRennesMetz
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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