Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap

Paris FC

LDWDD

3–2Full-time recap

Le Havre

WLLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Paris FC	Le Havre
Shots	15 shots/match	17 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.94 xG/match▲	1.31 xG/match
Possession	41%	59%
Corners	9 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	13 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Paris FC: 16 shots, 5 on target, 2.20 xG. Le Havre: 20 shots, 6 on target, 2.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 2.20 xG · Le Havre 2.21 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Le Havre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.81 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	0.81 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible home split

moderate

Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.5 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Paris FC

1Draws

0Le Havre

7 Dec 2025Le Havre — Paris FC · Ligue 10–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Le Havre in 3 · 9 too close

1.19 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/270.81 goals/match

1.59 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲1.3 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/2711.1 shots/match

12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/2712.9 shots/match

3.59 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/273.44 shots/match

4.04 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/274.07 shots/match

51.7%Possessionseason · 27/2746.6%

4.37 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274.41 corners/match

5.41 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲4.7 corners/match

2.27 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/27▲1.93 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2713.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2726%

70%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2752%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC58.3

Le Havre36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC39.8

Le Havre18.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC41.6

Le Havre51.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC25

Le Havre36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC43

Le Havre55.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC36.1

Le Havre41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC35.4

Le Havre43.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

12 shots/matchShots5/511.8 shots/match

3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match

41%Possession5/551.2%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match

3.25 cards/matchCards4/52 cards/match

9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.2 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

10.5 shots/matchShots10/1010.1 shots/match

3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.8 shots/match

48.1%Possession10/1047.9%

4.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match

2.67 cards/matchCards9/102 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches

1.19 goals/match▲Goals scored27/270.81 goals/match

1.59 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲1.3 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

11.5 shots/matchShots27/2711.1 shots/match

3.59 shots/matchShots on target27/273.44 shots/match

51.7%Possession27/2746.6%

4.37 corners/matchCorners27/274.41 corners/match

2.27 cards/matchCards26/271.93 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFouls27/2713.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.54 goals/match

1.85 goals/matchGoals allowed13/131.77 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

13.5 shots/match▲Shots13/139.92 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.85 shots/match

55.2%Possession13/1347.1%

5.85 corners/matchCorners13/133.92 corners/match

2.54 cards/matchCards13/132.23 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4