Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeOrange VélodromeFull-time recap

Marseille

DLWWW

1–2Full-time recap

Lille

DWWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Marseille	Lille
Shots	14 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.6 xG/match	0.97 xG/match▲
Possession	55%	45%
Corners	6 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	6 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Marseille: 14 shots, 3 on target, 0.59 xG. Lille: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 0.59 xG · Lille 0.97 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Marseille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	2 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Marseille

0Draws

1Lille

5 Dec 2025Lille — Marseille · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 1 · 10 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/271.56 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/271.26 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

14.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/2713.9 shots/match

10.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/279.85 shots/match

5.41 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/274.48 shots/match

4.11 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲3.67 shots/match

57.5%Possessionseason · 27/2754.8%

5 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/275.96 corners/match

3.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/273.7 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/252.32 cards/match

12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2711.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2730%

78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2770%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille91.7

Lille80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille88.9

Lille68.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille64.8

Lille80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille58.3

Lille75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille72.2

Lille50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille63.9

Lille91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille73.6

Lille64.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match

56.8%Possession5/554.2%

5.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

3.33 cards/matchCards3/32.67 cards/match

13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

14.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.8 shots/match

4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match

53.8%Possession10/1054.2%

4.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match

2.63 cards/matchCards8/82 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored27/271.56 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed27/271.26 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

14.2 shots/matchShots27/2713.9 shots/match

5.41 shots/match▲Shots on target27/274.48 shots/match

57.5%Possession27/2754.8%

5 corners/matchCorners27/275.96 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCards25/252.32 cards/match

12.7 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches

2.43 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.57 goals/match

1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.43 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

14.3 shots/match▲Shots14/1412.9 shots/match

5.79 shots/match▲Shots on target14/144.43 shots/match

58.3%Possession14/1455.1%

5.5 corners/matchCorners14/145.64 corners/match

2.17 cards/matchCards12/122.75 cards/match

13.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.85 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4