Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 13 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeOrange VélodromeFull-time recap

Marseille

LDLWW

1–0Full-time recap

Auxerre

DWLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Marseille	Auxerre
Shots	16 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	0.88 xG/match▲	0.31 xG/match
Possession	58%	42%
Corners	9 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	17 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Marseille: 16 shots, 3 on target, 0.89 xG. Auxerre: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 0.89 xG · Auxerre 0.32 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Auxerre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.73 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	0.73 goals/match	1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.6%▲PossessionMarseille · Auxerre43.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Marseille	Auxerre	Baseline
Possession	57.6%	43.7%	49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Auxerre show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Auxerre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsMarseille · Auxerre10.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Marseille	Auxerre	Baseline
Shots	14.2 shots/match	10.7 shots/match	11.7 shots/match
Shots against	10.3 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Marseille

0Draws

0Auxerre

1 Nov 2025Auxerre — Marseille · Ligue 10–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Auxerre in 0 · 5 too close

2.04 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/260.73 goals/match

1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.38 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2610.7 shots/match

10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2612.2 shots/match

5.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/263.19 shots/match

4.12 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/264.81 shots/match

57.6%Possessionseason · 26/2643.7%

4.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/264.85 corners/match

3.54 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/264.69 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/252.48 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2613.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2623%

77%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2642%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille91.7

Auxerre25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille88

Auxerre12

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille65.7

Auxerre38

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille58.3

Auxerre52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille72.2

Auxerre86.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille63.9

Auxerre58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille73.6

Auxerre43

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match

54.6%Possession5/540%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14.1 shots/match▲Shots10/109.6 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102 shots/match

53.9%Possession10/1043.2%

4.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match

2.78 cards/matchCards9/92.11 cards/match

14.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches

2.04 goals/match▲Goals scored26/260.73 goals/match

1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.38 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14.2 shots/match▲Shots26/2610.7 shots/match

5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target26/263.19 shots/match

57.6%Possession26/2643.7%

4.96 corners/matchCorners26/264.85 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCards25/252.48 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls26/2613.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches

2.54 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.69 goals/match

1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.62 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14.3 shots/match▲Shots13/139.92 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.08 shots/match

58.5%Possession13/1346%

5.46 corners/matchCorners13/134.31 corners/match

2.17 cards/matchCards12/122.5 cards/match

13.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.07 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 13 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4