PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 20:05 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricToulouseMarseille
Shots12 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession49%51%
Corners4 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 68′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 21′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlexis Vossah · Toulouse · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWaren Kamanzi · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 83′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulián Vignolo · Toulouse · 86′ · 0.06 xG · on targetGeoffrey Kondogbia · Marseille · 31′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 45′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 18′ · 0.08 xG · goalSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 46′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJacen Russell-Rowe · Toulouse · 89′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 27′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 43′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 53′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 90′ · 0.62 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 12 shots, 2 on target, 0.98 xG. Marseille: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 18′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 0.98 xG · Marseille 1.12 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.32 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse have a visible home split

moderate

Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match13 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.2%▲PossessionToulouse · Marseille57.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricToulouseMarseilleBaseline
Possession43.2%57.6%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Toulouse
2Draws
0Marseille
Marseille — Toulouse · Coupe de France2–2
Marseille — Toulouse · Ligue 12–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 5 · 6 too close

1.32 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲2.08 goals/match
1.16 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/251.32 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲14.2 shots/match
10.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/2510.4 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲5.6 shots/match
3.28 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/254.16 shots/match
43.2%Possessionseason · 25/2557.6%
4.84 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.8 corners/match
4.88 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲3.6 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/252.44 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2512.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2528%
64%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/25▲76%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse13.9
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse56.5
Marseille88
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse82.4
Marseille63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse97.2
Marseille58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse86.1
Marseille72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse58.3
Marseille52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse70.8
Marseille70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots5/512.6 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
51%Possession5/551.4%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls5/515 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/matchShots10/1014.3 shots/match
5.3 shots/matchShots on target10/105.5 shots/match
46%Possession10/1053.9%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.32 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲2.08 goals/match
1.16 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/251.32 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots25/25▲14.2 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲5.6 shots/match
43.2%Possession25/2557.6%
4.84 corners/matchCorners25/254.8 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards25/252.44 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2512.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.54 goals/matchGoals scored13/131.54 goals/match
1.31 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots13/1314.2 shots/match
5.08 shots/matchShots on target13/135 shots/match
43.5%Possession13/1356.6%
5.38 corners/matchCorners13/134.46 corners/match
1.54 cards/matchCards13/132.69 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.01 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsToulouseMarseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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