PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Roazhon Park

Stade Rennais 1–0 Toulouse · Ligue 1

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Stade Rennais won 1–0.

Shots
109
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
0.920.49
Possession
65%35%

Full time

What the match recorded

Rennes beat Toulouse 1–0. Recorded in this match (Rennes – Toulouse): shots 10–9, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 0.92–0.49, possession 65%–35%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes have a visible home split

moderate

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13.1 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.1 shots/match ▲ShotsRennes · Toulouse13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRennesToulouseBaseline
Shots13.1 shots/match13.1 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots9 shotsStade Rennais 10 shots, Toulouse 9 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsStade Rennais 2 shots, Toulouse 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.92 xG0.49 xGStade Rennais 0.92 xG, Toulouse 0.49 xG
  • Possession65%35%Stade Rennais 65%, Toulouse 35%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerStade Rennais 6 corners, Toulouse 1 corner
  • Fouls9 fouls13 foulsStade Rennais 9 fouls, Toulouse 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsStade Rennais 1 card, Toulouse 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 42′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMahamadou Nagida · Rennes · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 76′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 78′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 1′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.05 xG · on targetQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 22′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMousa Tamari · Rennes · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJacen Russell-Rowe · Toulouse · 87′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 27′ · 0.11 xG · goalEmersonn · Toulouse · 47′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 80′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 39′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.96 xG. Toulouse: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Arnaud Nordin · Rennes · 27′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 0.96 xG · Toulouse 0.47 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Stade Rennais
2Draws
3Toulouse
Toulouse — Stade Rennais · Ligue 12–2
Toulouse — Stade Rennais · Ligue 12–1
Stade Rennais — Toulouse · Ligue 10–2
Stade Rennais — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2
Toulouse — Stade Rennais · Ligue 10–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Rennais favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 5 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Rennais24 matchesToulouse24 matches
1.58 goals/match ▲Goals scored24/241.38 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals24/241.4 xG/match
13.1 shots/matchShots24/2413.1 shots/match
4.46 shots/matchShots on target24/244.58 shots/match
52% ●Possession24/2442.9%
5.54 corners/match ●Corners24/244.88 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCards24/242.38 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls24/2414.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade RennaisToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headStade Rennais — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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