PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeRoazhon ParkFull-time recap

Rennes

LLLWW
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRennesToulouse
Shots10 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession65%35%
Corners6 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 42′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMahamadou Nagida · Rennes · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 76′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 78′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 1′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.05 xG · on targetQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 22′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMousa Tamari · Rennes · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJacen Russell-Rowe · Toulouse · 87′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 27′ · 0.11 xG · goalEmersonn · Toulouse · 47′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 80′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 39′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.96 xG. Toulouse: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Arnaud Nordin · Rennes · 27′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 0.96 xG · Toulouse 0.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes have a visible home split

moderate

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.1 shots/match▲ShotsRennes · Toulouse13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRennesToulouseBaseline
Shots13.1 shots/match13.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against13.6 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Rennes
1Draws
0Toulouse
Toulouse — Rennes · Ligue 12–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rennes favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 4 · 7 too close

1.58 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/241.38 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.17 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/2413.1 shots/match
13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/24▲10.9 shots/match
4.46 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/244.54 shots/match
4.21 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/24▲3.29 shots/match
52%Possessionseason · 24/2442.9%
5.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/244.88 corners/match
4.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/245 corners/match
1.96 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 24/242.38 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2414.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/24▲33%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2467%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rennes63.9
Toulouse13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rennes65.7
Toulouse62.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rennes36.1
Toulouse82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rennes63.9
Toulouse97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rennes38.9
Toulouse88.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rennes75
Toulouse63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rennes62.5
Toulouse75.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match
51.6%Possession5/551.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/514 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/matchShots10/1013.2 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.4 shots/match
53.7%Possession10/1043.9%
5.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
1.58 goals/match▲Goals scored24/241.38 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲1.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/matchShots24/2413.1 shots/match
4.46 shots/matchShots on target24/244.54 shots/match
52%Possession24/2442.9%
5.54 corners/matchCorners24/244.88 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCards24/242.38 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls24/2414.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.92 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.08 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed12/121 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.8 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.75 shots/match
52.2%Possession12/1242.8%
6 corners/matchCorners12/124.25 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards12/123.25 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls12/1215.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.92 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRennesToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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