PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStade de l'Abbé DeschampsFull-time recap

Auxerre

LLDDW
0–3Full-time recap

Rennes

DLLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAuxerreRennes
Shots11 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession43%57%
Corners4 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match22 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Danny Namaso · Auxerre · 32′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Szymański · Rennes · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKévin Danois · Auxerre · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 71′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 85′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 70′ · 0.04 xG · on targetArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJosué Casimir · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBryan Okoh · Auxerre · 77′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMahamadou Nagida · Rennes · 20′ · 0.07 xG · on targetFredrik Oppegård · Auxerre · 63′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 78′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 45′ · 0.10 xG · goalMahdi Camara · Rennes · 20′ · 0.11 xG · goalBryan Okoh · Auxerre · 87′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJosué Casimir · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAnthony Rouault · Rennes · 83′ · 0.16 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 22′ · 0.33 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Auxerre: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.67 xG. Rennes: 12 shots, 7 on target, 0.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Mahdi Camara · Rennes · 20′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 22′Mahdi Camara · Rennes · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Auxerre 0.67 xG · Rennes 0.97 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rennes have a visible away split

moderate

Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match13.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Auxerre's recent record differs from the season

weak

Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.74 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.74 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Auxerre
1Draws
0Rennes
Rennes — Auxerre · Ligue 12–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Auxerre favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Rennes in 7 · 4 too close

0.74 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲1.61 goals/match
1.43 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.52 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲13.2 shots/match
11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2313.8 shots/match
3.17 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲4.57 shots/match
4.87 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲4.3 shots/match
44.2%Possessionseason · 23/2351.4%
4.87 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/235.52 corners/match
4.61 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/235 corners/match
2.48 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/23▲2 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2312.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲26%
43%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Auxerre25
Rennes58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Auxerre13.9
Rennes65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Auxerre41.7
Rennes33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Auxerre58.3
Rennes63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Auxerre86.2
Rennes41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Auxerre58.3
Rennes77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Auxerre44.4
Rennes64.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
1.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
42.2%Possession5/552.4%
4 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/515.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲13 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.1 shots/match
44.2%Possession10/1052%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
0.74 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲1.61 goals/match
1.43 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots23/23▲13.2 shots/match
3.17 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲4.57 shots/match
44.2%Possession23/2351.4%
4.87 corners/matchCorners23/235.52 corners/match
2.48 cards/matchCards23/232 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls23/2312.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.25 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.3 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲3.58 shots/match
42.6%Possession12/1251.8%
5.42 corners/matchCorners12/125.08 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards12/122.17 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.83 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAuxerreRennes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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