PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade Saint-SymphorienFull-time recap

Metz

DLLLD
1–3Full-time recap

Auxerre

LLLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMetzAuxerre
Shots13 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession62%38%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alpha Touré · Metz · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKoffi Kouao · Metz · 1′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSinaly Diomandé · Auxerre · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Abuashvili · Metz · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Kvilitaia · Metz · 89′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRomain Faivre · Auxerre · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSékou Mara · Auxerre · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlpha Touré · Metz · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 54′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNaouirou Ahamada · Auxerre · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBelieve Munongo · Metz · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNaouirou Ahamada · Auxerre · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSékou Mara · Auxerre · 71′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBelieve Munongo · Metz · 10′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlpha Touré · Metz · 55′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKévin Danois · Auxerre · 89′ · 0.06 xG · goalNathan Mbala · Metz · 90′ · 0.07 xG · goalLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 4′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSadibou Sané · Auxerre · 4′ · 0.10 xG · goalLamine Sy · Auxerre · 59′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedUrie-Michel Mboula · Auxerre · 76′ · 0.10 xG · goalKévin Danois · Auxerre · 88′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 76′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedKoffi Kouao · Metz · 18′ · 0.14 xG · on targetUrie-Michel Mboula · Metz · 50′ · 0.19 xG · on targetGauthier Hein · Metz · 35′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Metz: 13 shots, 4 on target, 0.95 xG. Auxerre: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.00 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Nathan Mbala · Metz · 90′Sadibou Sané · Auxerre · 4′Urie-Michel Mboula · Auxerre · 76′Kévin Danois · Auxerre · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 0.95 xG · Auxerre 1.00 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Auxerre's recent record differs from the season

weak

Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.77 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.77 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Metz
0Draws
1Auxerre
Auxerre — Metz · Ligue 13–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Metz favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Auxerre in 7 · 4 too close

1 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/220.77 goals/match
2.23 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲1.36 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.05 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲10.8 shots/match
14.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲11.9 shots/match
3.05 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/22▲3.23 shots/match
5.86 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/22▲4.77 shots/match
49%Possessionseason · 22/2244.3%
3.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/224.91 corners/match
4.95 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲4.59 corners/match
1.77 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 22/222.55 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2213.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲23%
64%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2245%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Metz50
Auxerre19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Metz11.1
Auxerre12
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Metz4.6
Auxerre41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Metz2.8
Auxerre52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Metz18
Auxerre79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Metz22.2
Auxerre55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Metz13.2
Auxerre38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots5/59.4 shots/match
2.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/51.4 shots/match
48.4%Possession5/544%
3 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/101 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.2 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target10/103.1 shots/match
49.7%Possession10/1042.9%
3.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored22/220.77 goals/match
2.23 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲1.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.05 shots/matchShots22/22▲10.8 shots/match
3.05 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲3.23 shots/match
49%Possession22/2244.3%
3.86 corners/matchCorners22/224.91 corners/match
1.77 cards/matchCards22/222.55 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls22/2213.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
0.91 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.64 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed11/111.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.64 shots/matchShots11/1110.1 shots/match
3.36 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.09 shots/match
48.1%Possession11/1146%
4 corners/matchCorners11/114.27 corners/match
1.45 cards/matchCards11/112.45 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMetzAuxerre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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