PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStade OcéaneFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLe HavreToulouse
Shots5 shots/match25 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession33%67%
Corners1 corners/match10 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Sofiane Boufal · Le Havre · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 62′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 37′ · 0.03 xG · on targetYann Gboho · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMario Sauer · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDjibril Sidibé · Toulouse · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJulián Vignolo · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 17′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMark McKenzie · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 60′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 64′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJacen Russell-Rowe · Toulouse · 66′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPape Diop · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 5′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 10′ · 0.30 xG · on targetDjibril Sidibé · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.44 xG · goalIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 53′ · 0.46 xG · goalIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 43′ · 0.55 xG · goalJulián Vignolo · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.72 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 5 shots, 2 on target, 1.12 xG. Toulouse: 25 shots, 9 on target, 2.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Issa Soumaré · Le Havre · 43′Issa Soumaré · Le Havre · 53′Djibril Sidibé · Toulouse · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 1.12 xG · Toulouse 2.56 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toulouse's last-five shots average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toulouse's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Le Havre
1Draws
0Toulouse
Toulouse — Le Havre · Ligue 10–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Le Havre favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 7 · 6 too close

0.91 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲1.45 goals/match
1.23 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/221.18 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲12.8 shots/match
12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲11.2 shots/match
3.68 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/22▲4.41 shots/match
4.05 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/22▲3.41 shots/match
45.6%Possessionseason · 22/2242.7%
4.59 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/224.73 corners/match
4.86 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/225.05 corners/match
1.91 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 22/222.41 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2214.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲36%
59%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲68%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Le Havre36.1
Toulouse2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Le Havre22.2
Toulouse62
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Le Havre57.4
Toulouse78.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Le Havre41.7
Toulouse97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Le Havre48.7
Toulouse91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Le Havre41.7
Toulouse47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Le Havre41
Toulouse69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.8 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.6 shots/match
44.6%Possession5/550.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.1 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.2 shots/match
43.8%Possession10/1042.6%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲1.45 goals/match
1.23 goals/matchGoals allowed22/221.18 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShots22/22▲12.8 shots/match
3.68 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲4.41 shots/match
45.6%Possession22/2242.7%
4.59 corners/matchCorners22/224.73 corners/match
1.91 cards/matchCards22/222.41 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2214.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 11 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/111.18 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/111 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shots12/1110.9 shots/match
4.17 shots/match▲Shots on target12/113.91 shots/match
48.3%Possession12/1143.5%
5.25 corners/matchCorners12/114.55 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards12/113.27 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1115.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.91 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLe HavreToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match