PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade OcéaneFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLe HavreStrasbourg
Shots15 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession51%49%
Corners9 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Sofiane Boufal · Le Havre · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLoic Négo · Le Havre · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSimon Ebonog · Le Havre · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamir El Mourabet · Strasbourg · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSimon Ebonog · Le Havre · 4′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 6′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSofiane Boufal · Le Havre · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLoic Négo · Le Havre · 44′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 54′ · 0.05 xG · goalTimothee Pembele · Le Havre · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 36′ · 0.06 xG · goalMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSimon Ebonog · Le Havre · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 40′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedStephan Zagadou · Le Havre · 26′ · 0.08 xG · goalIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 41′ · 0.08 xG · on targetSebastian Nanasi · Strasbourg · 88′ · 0.08 xG · on targetYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetArouna Sangante · Le Havre · 9′ · 0.09 xG · on targetRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 44′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 15 shots, 7 on target, 0.84 xG. Strasbourg: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Stephan Zagadou · Le Havre · 26′Issa Soumaré · Le Havre · 54′Martial Godo · Strasbourg · 36′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 0.84 xG · Strasbourg 0.43 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Le Havre's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Le Havre's recent record differs from the season

weak

Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Le Havre have a visible home split

moderate

Le Havre's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13 shots/match11.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Le Havre
0Draws
1Strasbourg
Strasbourg — Le Havre · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Le Havre favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Strasbourg in 6 · 6 too close

0.86 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.62 goals/match
1.24 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/211.29 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/2111.1 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲11.3 shots/match
3.76 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.33 shots/match
3.81 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.05 shots/match
46.2%Possessionseason · 21/2151.5%
4.76 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/213.81 corners/match
4.62 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.19 corners/match
1.9 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.24 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲33%
57%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Le Havre36.1
Strasbourg58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Le Havre23.2
Strasbourg54.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Le Havre59.3
Strasbourg61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Le Havre47.2
Strasbourg13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Le Havre52.8
Strasbourg45.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Le Havre50
Strasbourg19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Le Havre48
Strasbourg34.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
48%Possession5/547.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/match▲Shots10/109.7 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
47%Possession10/1051.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.62 goals/match
1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed21/211.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots21/2111.1 shots/match
3.76 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.33 shots/match
46.2%Possession21/2151.5%
4.76 corners/matchCorners21/213.81 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards21/212.24 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.18 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.55 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots11/1110.1 shots/match
4.36 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.45 shots/match
49.7%Possession11/1152%
5.64 corners/matchCorners11/112.91 corners/match
1.45 cards/matchCards11/112.64 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.85 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLe HavreStrasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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