PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade Raymond-KopaFull-time recap

Angers

WLLDW
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAngersToulouse
Shots12 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession51%49%
Corners3 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 1′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 22′ · 0.01 xG · on targetYassin Belkhdim · Angers · 85′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLilian Raolisoa · Angers · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 19′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 47′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPape Diop · Toulouse · 52′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPape Diop · Toulouse · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLanroy Machine · Angers · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBranco Van den Boomen · Angers · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLouis Mouton · Angers · 24′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBranco Van den Boomen · Angers · 39′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJulián Vignolo · Toulouse · 78′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLilian Raolisoa · Angers · 89′ · 0.04 xG · goalLouis Mouton · Angers · 51′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 75′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYassin Belkhdim · Angers · 70′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedGoduine Koyalipou · Angers · 70′ · 0.15 xG · on targetEmersonn · Toulouse · 35′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedGoduine Koyalipou · Angers · 77′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedGoduine Koyalipou · Angers · 61′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Angers: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.02 xG. Toulouse: 12 shots, 5 on target, 0.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Lilian Raolisoa · Angers · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Angers 1.02 xG · Toulouse 0.42 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Toulouse have a visible away split

moderate

Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Angers
1Draws
0Toulouse
Angers — Toulouse · Coupe de France1–1
Toulouse — Angers · Ligue 10–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Angers favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 5 · 7 too close

1.05 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.48 goals/match
1.19 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/211.14 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.52 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲12.2 shots/match
14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲11.5 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.19 shots/match
5.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.48 shots/match
43%Possessionseason · 21/2141.6%
3.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.48 corners/match
5.19 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/215.24 corners/match
1.48 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.33 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2114.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2138%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2167%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Angers8.3
Toulouse2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Angers19.4
Toulouse55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Angers36.1
Toulouse75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Angers19.4
Toulouse97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Angers13.8
Toulouse86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Angers13.9
Toulouse41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Angers16.6
Toulouse62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.4 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
47.8%Possession5/543.8%
4 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.2 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match
48.3%Possession10/1040.9%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1015 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.48 goals/match
1.19 goals/matchGoals allowed21/211.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.52 shots/matchShots21/21▲12.2 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.19 shots/match
43%Possession21/2141.6%
3.71 corners/matchCorners21/214.48 corners/match
1.48 cards/matchCards21/212.33 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls21/2114.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 10 matches
1.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/101.2 goals/match
1.09 goals/matchGoals allowed11/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/match▲Shots11/109.5 shots/match
4.64 shots/match▲Shots on target11/103.4 shots/match
45.9%Possession11/1041.2%
4.55 corners/matchCorners11/104 corners/match
1.73 cards/matchCards11/103.2 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls11/1015.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAngersToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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