PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeOrange VélodromeFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMarseilleStrasbourg
Shots10 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession44%56%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ben Chilwell · Strasbourg · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGessime Yassine · Strasbourg · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 43′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSebastian Nanasi · Strasbourg · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 47′ · 0.05 xG · goalTimothy Weah · Marseille · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 13′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Nanasi · Strasbourg · 73′ · 0.07 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Marseille · 45′ · 0.11 xG · on targetGuéla Doué · Strasbourg · 76′ · 0.11 xG · on targetJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 39′ · 0.12 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 39′ · 0.13 xG · on targetLucas Høgsberg · Strasbourg · 27′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 14′ · 0.31 xG · goalQuinten Timber · Marseille · 50′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 5′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Marseille: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.41 xG. Strasbourg: 12 shots, 4 on target, 2.02 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 14′Amine Gouiri · Marseille · 47′Sebastian Nanasi · Strasbourg · 73′Joaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 1.41 xG · Strasbourg 2.02 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season

weak

Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.64 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.64 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Marseille
0Draws
0Strasbourg
Strasbourg — Marseille · Ligue 11–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Strasbourg in 2 · 7 too close

2.18 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/221.64 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/221.32 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2211.2 shots/match
10.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2211.2 shots/match
5.73 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/224.32 shots/match
4.18 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/224.14 shots/match
57.6%Possessionseason · 22/2251.7%
4.91 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/223.86 corners/match
3.73 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 22/224.23 corners/match
2.32 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/222.23 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2211.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲32%
77%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille91.7
Strasbourg63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille89.8
Strasbourg56.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille64.8
Strasbourg61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille58.3
Strasbourg13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille63.9
Strasbourg45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille52.8
Strasbourg25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille70.8
Strasbourg36.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
50.8%Possession5/547.6%
3 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.4 shots/match
5.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
55%Possession10/1053%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
2.18 goals/match▲Goals scored22/221.64 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed22/221.32 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shots22/2211.2 shots/match
5.73 shots/match▲Shots on target22/224.32 shots/match
57.6%Possession22/2251.7%
4.91 corners/matchCorners22/223.86 corners/match
2.32 cards/matchCards22/222.23 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2211.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 12 matches
2.64 goals/match▲Goals scored11/121.58 goals/match
1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/121.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots11/1210.3 shots/match
6.18 shots/match▲Shots on target11/123.5 shots/match
59.2%Possession11/1252.3%
4.91 corners/matchCorners11/123.08 corners/match
2.09 cards/matchCards11/122.58 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls11/1212.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.84 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.99 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMarseilleStrasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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