PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap
5–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis Saint GermainMarseille
Shots22 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession58%42%
Corners5 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Nuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 89′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedHimad Abdelli · Marseille · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Medina · Marseille · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 55′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHimad Abdelli · Marseille · 72′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 74′ · 0.04 xG · goalDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 2′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 43′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 66′ · 0.06 xG · goalGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 85′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedQuinten Timber · Marseille · 29′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHimad Abdelli · Marseille · 78′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 32′ · 0.09 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 8′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Medina · Paris Saint Germain · 64′ · 0.10 xG · goalDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 25′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Weah · Marseille · 60′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 50′ · 0.14 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 86′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 50′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 37′ · 0.21 xG · goalAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 15′ · 0.28 xG · on targetDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 54′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 12′ · 0.33 xG · goalNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.63 xG · on targetKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 89′ · 0.73 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 64′ · 0.78 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 23 shots, 8 on target, 4.31 xG. Marseille: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.68 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.254.50′HT90′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 12′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 37′Facundo Medina · Paris Saint Germain · 64′Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 66′Kang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 74′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 4.31 xG · Marseille 0.68 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris Saint Germain have a visible home split

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season17.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20.5 shots/match17.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.5 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Marseille14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainMarseilleBaseline
Shots17.5 shots/match14.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against8.48 shots/match10.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

68.6%▲PossessionParis Saint Germain · Marseille58.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainMarseilleBaseline
Possession68.6%58.3%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Paris Saint Germain
0Draws
1Marseille
Marseille — Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 0 · 5 too close

2.29 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/212.19 goals/match
0.76 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.29 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
17.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2114.3 shots/match
8.48 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2110.1 shots/match
6.76 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/215.71 shots/match
2.9 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.19 shots/match
68.6%Possessionseason · 21/2158.3%
6.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.9 corners/match
2.95 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/213.67 corners/match
1.14 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.24 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2112.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
52%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2129%
90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2176%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Marseille89.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Marseille65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain63.9
Marseille58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain5.6
Marseille57
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Marseille58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain75
Marseille72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.8 shots/match▲Shots5/514.2 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55.4 shots/match
65.2%Possession5/553.2%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/515.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102.1 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.7 shots/match
6.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/106 shots/match
64.5%Possession10/1057%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
1.1 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
2.29 goals/matchGoals scored21/212.19 goals/match
0.76 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.5 shots/match▲Shots21/2114.3 shots/match
6.76 shots/match▲Shots on target21/215.71 shots/match
68.6%Possession21/2158.3%
6.14 corners/matchCorners21/214.9 corners/match
1.14 cards/matchCards21/212.24 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 11 matches
2.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/111.73 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/111.45 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1114.4 shots/match
7.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/115.27 shots/match
68.6%Possession10/1156.1%
6.6 corners/matchCorners10/114.91 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards10/112.55 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1111.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.16 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis Saint GermainMarseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match