PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTCFull timeRoazhon ParkFull-time recap

Rennes

WDLLL
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRennesParis Saint Germain
Shots13 shots/match22 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession33%67%
Corners5 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match0 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mahamadou Nagida · Rennes · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 32′ · 0.03 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 32′ · 0.04 xG · on targetWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 24′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 34′ · 0.05 xG · goalGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 46′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 69′ · 0.07 xG · goalLudovic Blas · Rennes · 69′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 32′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 32′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 77′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 57′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 65′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedWillian Pacho · Paris Saint Germain · 64′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 79′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.22 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 50′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 77′ · 0.25 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 71′ · 0.31 xG · goalDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 12′ · 0.32 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 77′ · 0.34 xG · on targetDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 24′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 39′ · 0.37 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 81′ · 0.89 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.38 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 22 shots, 7 on target, 3.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Mousa Tamari · Rennes · 34′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 69′Breel Embolo · Rennes · 81′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 1.38 xG · Paris Saint Germain 3.71 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rennes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rennes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rennes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.55 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.55 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsRennes · Paris Saint Germain17.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRennesParis Saint GermainBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match17.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match8.68 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Rennes have a visible home split

moderate

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Rennes
0Draws
1Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain — Rennes · Ligue 15–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rennes favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 10 · 4 too close

1.55 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲2.23 goals/match
1.59 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲17.7 shots/match
14 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲8.68 shots/match
4.45 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/22▲6.77 shots/match
4.41 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/22▲2.95 shots/match
51.2%Possessionseason · 22/2268.5%
5.55 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/226.23 corners/match
5.05 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲3.05 corners/match
1.91 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/22▲1.09 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2210.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲50%
77%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rennes58.3
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rennes67.6
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rennes28.7
Paris Saint Germain95.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rennes69.4
Paris Saint Germain63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rennes36.2
Paris Saint Germain2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rennes80.6
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rennes66.7
Paris Saint Germain73.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲17.2 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.6 shots/match
51.8%Possession5/564.6%
6 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.5 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.8 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7.2 shots/match
51.3%Possession10/1064%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/100.9 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1.55 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲2.23 goals/match
1.59 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShots22/22▲17.7 shots/match
4.45 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲6.77 shots/match
51.2%Possession22/2268.5%
5.55 corners/matchCorners22/226.23 corners/match
1.91 cards/matchCards22/221.09 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls22/2210.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 12 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored11/121.83 goals/match
1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/121.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/match▲Shots11/1215.3 shots/match
5.64 shots/matchShots on target11/12▲6.17 shots/match
51%Possession11/1268.5%
6 corners/matchCorners11/125.92 corners/match
1.82 cards/matchCards11/121 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls11/129.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.93 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRennesParis Saint Germain
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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