PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

WWWLW
3–1Full-time recap

Rennes

WWDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLensRennes
Shots9 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession51%49%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Valentin Rongier · Rennes · 71′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMahamadou Nagida · Rennes · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsmaelo Ganiou · Lens · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbdelhamid Ait Boudlal · Rennes · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMahamadou Nagida · Rennes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLilian Brassier · Rennes · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAllan Saint-Maximin · Lens · 78′ · 0.06 xG · goalAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 36′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 72′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 30′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 89′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 87′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 5′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 88′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedRuben Aguilar · Lens · 54′ · 0.24 xG · goalOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 41′ · 0.37 xG · goalEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 8′ · 0.52 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.21 xG. Rennes: 14 shots, 1 on target, 1.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Odsonne Édouard · Lens · 41′Ruben Aguilar · Lens · 54′Allan Saint-Maximin · Lens · 78′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 8′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 1.21 xG · Rennes 1.35 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rennes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rennes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rennes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes have a visible away split

moderate

Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.48 corners/match▲CornersLens · Rennes5.57 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLensRennesBaseline
Corners5.48 corners/match5.57 corners/match4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lens
1Draws
0Rennes
Rennes — Lens · Ligue 10–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Rennes in 1 · 5 too close

1.76 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.48 goals/match
0.81 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.62 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/2113.3 shots/match
11.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2113.6 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/214.48 shots/match
3.33 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.29 shots/match
49.4%Possessionseason · 21/2152%
5.48 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/215.57 corners/match
4.24 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/214.9 corners/match
2.29 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/21▲2 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2112.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2124%
81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2176%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens52.8
Rennes63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens83.3
Rennes65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens78.7
Rennes32.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens91.7
Rennes69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens77.8
Rennes43
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens75
Rennes80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens81.2
Rennes66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.2 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.2 shots/match
53.4%Possession5/557.4%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
16.8 fouls/matchFouls5/515.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.2 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.2 shots/match
53.9%Possession10/1052.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.76 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.48 goals/match
0.81 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.62 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/matchShots21/2113.3 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target21/214.48 shots/match
49.4%Possession21/2152%
5.48 corners/matchCorners21/215.57 corners/match
2.29 cards/matchCards21/212 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.91 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.09 goals/match
0.45 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.09 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots11/1110.2 shots/match
5.27 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.27 shots/match
49.7%Possession11/1151.4%
6.09 corners/matchCorners11/115.09 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards11/112 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.84 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.83 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLensRennes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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