PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 20:05 UTCFull timeStade de la BeaujoireFull-time recap

Nantes

LWLLL
0–1Full-time recap

Lyon

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNantesLyon
Shots13 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession54%46%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Matthis Abline · Nantes · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNoah Nartey · Lyon · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAli Youssef · Nantes · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 49′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMatthis Abline · Nantes · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAbakar Sylla · Nantes · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kaba · Nantes · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 25′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTanner Tessmann · Lyon · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRémy Cabella · Nantes · 32′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 44′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAli Youssef · Nantes · 50′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFrancis Coquelin · Nantes · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 19′ · 0.08 xG · on targetFabien Centonze · Nantes · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 51′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTanner Tessmann · Lyon · 56′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAinsley Maitland-Niles · Lyon · 20′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 69′ · 0.15 xG · on targetEndrick · Lyon · 27′ · 0.20 xG · on targetPavel Šulc · Lyon · 25′ · 0.21 xG · goalTanner Tessmann · Lyon · 20′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.73 xG. Lyon: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.22 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Pavel Šulc · Lyon · 25′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 0.73 xG · Lyon 1.22 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lyon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lyon's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lyon's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lyon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.62 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.62 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lyon show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lyon's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsNantes · Lyon12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNantesLyonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match11 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lyon have recorded the higher season possession share.

44%▲PossessionNantes · Lyon54.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNantesLyonBaseline
Possession44%54.9%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nantes
0Draws
1Lyon
Lyon — Nantes · Ligue 13–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nantes favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lyon in 9 · 4 too close

0.9 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.62 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲0.95 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲12.4 shots/match
14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲11 shots/match
2.9 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.9 shots/match
5.05 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.38 shots/match
44%Possessionseason · 21/2154.9%
3.19 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/215.71 corners/match
5.76 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.62 corners/match
2.05 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.19 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2114 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲52%
62%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nantes25
Lyon86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nantes10.2
Lyon72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nantes15.7
Lyon82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nantes36.1
Lyon25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nantes50
Lyon70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nantes2.8
Lyon86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nantes18.1
Lyon79.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/511.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match
49%Possession5/552.2%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
15.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.8 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.5 shots/match
44.4%Possession10/1054.8%
2.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.62 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲0.95 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots21/21▲12.4 shots/match
2.9 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.9 shots/match
44%Possession21/2154.9%
3.19 corners/matchCorners21/215.71 corners/match
2.05 cards/matchCards21/212.19 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls21/2114 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.55 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.18 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots11/1111.2 shots/match
2.91 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5.09 shots/match
45.5%Possession11/1153.5%
3.18 corners/matchCorners11/115.82 corners/match
1.73 cards/matchCards11/112.55 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.25 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNantesLyon
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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