PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 20:05 UTCFull timeStade Louis IIFull-time recap

Monaco

LLDWD
3–1Full-time recap

Nantes

WLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMonacoNantes
Shots12 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession47%53%
Corners9 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Matthis Abline · Nantes · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 46′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMatthis Abline · Nantes · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeiver Machado · Nantes · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 18′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDeiver Machado · Nantes · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Monaco · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 38′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedThilo Kehrer · Monaco · 9′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAbakar Sylla · Nantes · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 22′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Monaco · 28′ · 0.11 xG · goalIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 84′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Monaco · 40′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 6′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 30′ · 0.18 xG · goalAnsu Fati · Monaco · 90′ · 0.20 xG · on targetWout Faes · Monaco · 19′ · 0.25 xG · on targetFabien Centonze · Nantes · 45′ · 0.27 xG · goalSimon Adingra · Monaco · 25′ · 0.37 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monaco: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.62 xG. Nantes: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Simon Adingra · Monaco · 25′Simon Adingra · Monaco · 28′Denis Zakaria · Monaco · 30′Fabien Centonze · Nantes · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 1.62 xG · Nantes 0.91 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Monaco's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nantes's last-five shots average is above their season average.

12.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Monaco show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Monaco's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match▲ShotsMonaco · Nantes10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMonacoNantesBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match14.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Monaco have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.1%▲PossessionMonaco · Nantes44.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMonacoNantesBaseline
Possession53.1%44.4%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Monaco
0Draws
0Nantes
Nantes — Monaco · Ligue 13–5

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Monaco favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Nantes in 1 · 4 too close

1.59 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/220.91 goals/match
1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/221.82 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2210.5 shots/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2214.5 shots/match
4.18 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/222.86 shots/match
4.32 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/225.09 shots/match
53.1%Possessionseason · 22/2244.4%
4.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/223.18 corners/match
4.27 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 22/225.91 corners/match
2.73 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/22▲2.05 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2212.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2214%
73%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2264%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monaco69.4
Nantes25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monaco58.3
Nantes10.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monaco38
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monaco30.6
Nantes36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monaco83.3
Nantes44.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monaco58.3
Nantes2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monaco59.7
Nantes16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots5/512.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
52.8%Possession5/550.8%
6 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
15.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.2 shots/match
50.4%Possession10/1046.2%
5.7 corners/matchCorners10/102.5 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1.59 goals/match▲Goals scored22/220.91 goals/match
1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/221.82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots22/2210.5 shots/match
4.18 shots/match▲Shots on target22/222.86 shots/match
53.1%Possession22/2244.4%
4.95 corners/matchCorners22/223.18 corners/match
2.73 cards/matchCards22/222.05 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2212.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 11 matches
2.08 goals/match▲Goals scored12/110.91 goals/match
1.58 goals/matchGoals allowed12/111.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots12/119.82 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target12/112.82 shots/match
52.3%Possession12/1143.3%
5 corners/matchCorners12/113.18 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards12/112.36 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1112.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.25 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMonacoNantes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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