PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade Louis II

AS Monaco 3–1 Nantes · Ligue 1

3–1Historical match

Nantes

WLLLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

AS Monaco won 3–1.

Shots
1213
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.530.93
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Monaco beat Nantes 3–1. Recorded in this match (Monaco – Nantes): shots 12–13, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.53–0.93, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nantes's last-five shots average is above their season average.

12.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Monaco show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Monaco's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsMonaco · Nantes10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMonacoNantesBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match14.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Monaco have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.2% ●PossessionMonaco · Nantes44.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMonacoNantesBaseline
Possession53.2%44.4%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots13 shotsAS Monaco 12 shots, Nantes 13 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsAS Monaco 6 shots, Nantes 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.53 xG0.93 xGAS Monaco 1.53 xG, Nantes 0.93 xG
  • Possession47%53%AS Monaco 47%, Nantes 53%
  • Corners9 corners3 cornersAS Monaco 9 corners, Nantes 3 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls8 foulsAS Monaco 15 fouls, Nantes 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards2 cardsAS Monaco 5 cards, Nantes 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Matthis Abline · Nantes · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 46′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMatthis Abline · Nantes · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeiver Machado · Nantes · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 18′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDeiver Machado · Nantes · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Monaco · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 38′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedThilo Kehrer · Monaco · 9′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAbakar Sylla · Nantes · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 22′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Monaco · 28′ · 0.11 xG · goalIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 84′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Monaco · 40′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 6′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 30′ · 0.18 xG · goalAnsu Fati · Monaco · 90′ · 0.20 xG · on targetWout Faes · Monaco · 19′ · 0.25 xG · on targetFabien Centonze · Nantes · 45′ · 0.27 xG · goalSimon Adingra · Monaco · 25′ · 0.37 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monaco: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.62 xG. Nantes: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Simon Adingra · Monaco · 25′Simon Adingra · Monaco · 28′Denis Zakaria · Monaco · 30′Fabien Centonze · Nantes · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 1.62 xG · Nantes 0.91 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3AS Monaco
2Draws
0Nantes
Nantes — AS Monaco · Ligue 13–5
AS Monaco — Nantes · Ligue 17–1
Nantes — AS Monaco · Ligue 12–2
AS Monaco — Nantes · Ligue 14–0
Nantes — AS Monaco · Ligue 13–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AS Monaco favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Nantes in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AS Monaco22 matchesNantes22 matches
1.59 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/220.91 goals/match
1.55 goals/match ▲Goals allowed22/221.82 goals/match
1.72 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/220.96 xG/match
12.4 shots/match ▲Shots22/2210.5 shots/match
4.18 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/222.86 shots/match
53.2% ●Possession22/2244.4%
4.95 corners/match ●Corners22/223.18 corners/match
2.73 cards/matchCards22/222.05 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2212.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAS MonacoNantes
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headAS Monaco — Nantes
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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