UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 17 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeStade Louis IIFull-time recap

Monaco

WDWLD

2–3Full-time recap

Paris Saint Germain

LWDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Monaco	Paris Saint Germain
Shots	7 shots/match	30 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.19 xG/match	2.51 xG/match▲
Possession	20%	80%
Corners	1 corners/match	8 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	4 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Monaco: 7 shots, 4 on target, 1.20 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 30 shots, 10 on target, 2.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 1.20 xG · Paris Saint Germain 2.56 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsMonaco · Paris Saint Germain22.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Monaco	Paris Saint Germain	Baseline
Shots	13.8 shots/match	22.4 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	18 shots/match	9 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

43%▲PossessionMonaco · Paris Saint Germain69.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 26.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Monaco	Paris Saint Germain	Baseline
Possession	43%	69.2%	50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Paris Saint Germain's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.67 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	2.67 goals/match	1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Monaco

0Draws

0Paris Saint Germain

29 Nov 2025Monaco — Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Monaco favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 10 · 3 too close

1.11 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲2.67 goals/match

1.89 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲1.44 goals/match

1.63 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/9▲2.23 xG/match

1.82 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 9/9▲1.26 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲22.4 shots/match

18 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲9 shots/match

4.89 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲7.89 shots/match

4.78 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/9▲3.44 shots/match

43%Possessionseason · 9/969.2%

4.89 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/96.89 corners/match

4.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲2.44 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/97.67 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/922%

78%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monaco17.9

Paris Saint Germain98.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monaco44

Paris Saint Germain96.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monaco23.6

Paris Saint Germain77.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monaco79.8

Paris Saint Germain84.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monaco77.4

Paris Saint Germain3.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monaco60.7

Paris Saint Germain96.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monaco61.9

Paris Saint Germain73.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.63 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.03 xG/match

14.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲23.2 shots/match

5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.8 shots/match

43%Possession5/572.2%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/57.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches

1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲2.67 goals/match

1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.44 goals/match

1.63 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲2.23 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShots9/9▲22.4 shots/match

4.89 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲7.89 shots/match

43%Possession9/969.2%

4.89 corners/matchCorners9/96.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls9/97.67 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches

1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲2.67 goals/match

1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.44 goals/match

1.63 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲2.23 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShots9/9▲22.4 shots/match

4.89 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲7.89 shots/match

43%Possession9/969.2%

4.89 corners/matchCorners9/96.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls9/97.67 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match

1.79 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.05 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲23 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.2 shots/match

39.4%Possession5/570.2%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/57.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14 fouls/matchFouls5/57.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

20 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/120 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples9 / 9home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 18 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

The teams have contrasting possession records

Paris Saint Germain's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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