PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

WLWWW
2–3Full-time recap

Monaco

LDWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLensMonaco
Shots18 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Wout Faes · Monaco · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLamine Camara · Monaco · 76′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMalang Sarr · Lens · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 7′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMalang Sarr · Lens · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAllan Saint-Maximin · Lens · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAllan Saint-Maximin · Lens · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 77′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMalang Sarr · Lens · 56′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAndrija Bulatovic · Lens · 34′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Monaco · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 43′ · 0.08 xG · on targetFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 55′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLamine Camara · Monaco · 25′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 62′ · 0.11 xG · goalOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 3′ · 0.12 xG · goalFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 67′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 70′ · 0.27 xG · goalAnsu Fati · Monaco · 72′ · 0.35 xG · goalRayan Fofana · Lens · 80′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 26′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 21′ · 0.40 xG · on targetFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 56′ · 0.48 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 18 shots, 7 on target, 1.63 xG. Monaco: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Odsonne Édouard · Lens · 3′Florian Thauvin · Lens · 56′Folarin Balogun · Monaco · 62′Denis Zakaria · Monaco · 70′Ansu Fati · Monaco · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 1.63 xG · Monaco 1.75 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lens's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lens's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lens's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.91 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.91 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsLens · Monaco12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLensMonacoBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Lens
0Draws
0Monaco
Monaco — Lens · Ligue 11–4

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Monaco in 0 · 4 too close

1.91 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/231.65 goals/match
0.87 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.57 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2312.3 shots/match
11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2313.3 shots/match
5.13 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/234.22 shots/match
3.52 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/234.43 shots/match
49.2%Possessionseason · 23/2352.9%
5.52 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/234.83 corners/match
4.09 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/234.39 corners/match
2.22 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 23/232.65 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2313.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2322%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2374%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens52.8
Monaco69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens84.3
Monaco65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens76.9
Monaco31.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens91.7
Monaco30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens68
Monaco88.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens75
Monaco52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens81.9
Monaco62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/54.2 shots/match
49%Possession5/550%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.4 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.4 shots/match
52.8%Possession10/1050.2%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1.91 goals/match▲Goals scored23/231.65 goals/match
0.87 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shots23/2312.3 shots/match
5.13 shots/match▲Shots on target23/234.22 shots/match
49.2%Possession23/2352.9%
5.52 corners/matchCorners23/234.83 corners/match
2.22 cards/matchCards23/232.65 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls23/2313.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 11 matches
1.92 goals/match▲Goals scored12/111.18 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/111.55 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots12/1111.4 shots/match
5.42 shots/match▲Shots on target12/113.64 shots/match
49.9%Possession12/1153.5%
6.17 corners/matchCorners12/114.64 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards12/113.09 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1114.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.83 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.83 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLensMonaco
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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