PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricToulouseParis FC
Shots23 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession55%45%
Corners12 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲5 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 53′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDayann Methalie · Toulouse · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulián Vignolo · Toulouse · 75′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 65′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 15′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 30′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.05 xG · on targetEmersonn · Toulouse · 9′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 61′ · 0.06 xG · on targetYann Gboho · Toulouse · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 71′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 73′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 79′ · 0.08 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 81′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 86′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJacen Russell-Rowe · Toulouse · 66′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 6′ · 0.19 xG · on targetYann Gboho · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.25 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 41′ · 0.54 xG · on targetMarshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 39′ · 0.55 xG · goalJulián Vignolo · Toulouse · 87′ · 0.81 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 23 shots, 10 on target, 2.86 xG. Paris FC: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.78 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Julián Vignolo · Toulouse · 87′Marshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 39′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 2.86 xG · Paris FC 0.78 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible away split

moderate

Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.17 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.17 shots/match11.1 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.3%▲PossessionToulouse · Paris FC53.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricToulouseParis FCBaseline
Possession43.3%53.8%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Toulouse
0Draws
0Paris FC
Paris FC — Toulouse · Ligue 10–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Paris FC in 1 · 6 too close

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/231.17 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.74 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2311.1 shots/match
10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2312.3 shots/match
4.65 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/233.52 shots/match
3.35 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/234.09 shots/match
43.3%Possessionseason · 23/2353.8%
5.04 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/234.13 corners/match
4.96 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/235.17 corners/match
2.35 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/23▲2.22 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2322%
70%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2370%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse13.9
Paris FC75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse63.9
Paris FC26.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse82.4
Paris FC41.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse97.2
Paris FC8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse88.9
Paris FC37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse63.9
Paris FC30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse75
Paris FC26.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shots5/58 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
53.2%Possession5/553.8%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shots10/108.9 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match
42.7%Possession10/1052.7%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored23/231.17 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.74 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots23/2311.1 shots/match
4.65 shots/match▲Shots on target23/233.52 shots/match
43.3%Possession23/2353.8%
5.04 corners/matchCorners23/234.13 corners/match
2.35 cards/matchCards23/232.22 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.08 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots12/129.17 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.25 shots/match
43%Possession12/1250.1%
5.5 corners/matchCorners12/123 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards12/122.17 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.91 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsToulouseParis FC
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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