PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 20:05 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap
0–5Full-time recap

Lens

WWLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis FCLens
Shots11 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match6 shots/match
Possession58%42%
Corners3 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Maxime López · Paris FC · 10′ · 0.01 xG · on targetOtávio · Paris FC · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOtávio · Paris FC · 51′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMatthieu Udol · Lens · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 79′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAllan Saint-Maximin · Lens · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCiro Immobile · Paris FC · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAllan Saint-Maximin · Lens · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMalang Sarr · Lens · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 76′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMarshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 33′ · 0.07 xG · on targetFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 8′ · 0.08 xG · on targetCiro Immobile · Paris FC · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 13′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 90′ · 0.09 xG · goalWesley Saïd · Lens · 38′ · 0.10 xG · goalIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 10′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 80′ · 0.13 xG · on targetWesley Saïd · Lens · 24′ · 0.17 xG · goalWesley Saïd · Lens · 31′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 13′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 13′ · 0.41 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 68′ · 0.55 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 90′ · 0.55 xG · goalFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 58′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 11 shots, 6 on target, 0.57 xG. Lens: 17 shots, 6 on target, 3.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Wesley Saïd · Lens · 24′Wesley Saïd · Lens · 38′Florian Thauvin · Lens · 58′Rayan Fofana · Lens · 90′Rayan Fofana · Lens · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 0.57 xG · Lens 3.57 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.18 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.18 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible home split

moderate

Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Paris FC
0Draws
1Lens
Lens — Paris FC · Ligue 12–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lens in 8 · 5 too close

1.18 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲1.91 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲0.77 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲13.9 shots/match
11.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/2211.8 shots/match
3.59 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/22▲5.05 shots/match
3.82 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/22▲3.45 shots/match
54.2%Possessionseason · 22/2249%
4.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/225.45 corners/match
4.86 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲4.18 corners/match
2.09 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 22/222.23 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2213.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲41%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC75
Lens52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC30.6
Lens84.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC47.2
Lens79.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC8.3
Lens91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC38.9
Lens73.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC30.6
Lens75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC30.6
Lens81.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.4 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
55.2%Possession5/548.2%
3 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/515.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.8 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match
53%Possession10/1053.1%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1.18 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲1.91 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲0.77 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots22/22▲13.9 shots/match
3.59 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲5.05 shots/match
54.2%Possession22/2249%
4.18 corners/matchCorners22/225.45 corners/match
2.09 cards/matchCards22/222.23 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2213.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.27 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.91 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.09 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots11/1113.1 shots/match
3.82 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.82 shots/match
57.8%Possession11/1148.4%
5.36 corners/matchCorners11/114.82 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards11/112.45 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis FCLens
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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