PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTCFull timeStade Pierre-MauroyFull-time recap

Lille

LLLLD
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLilleStade Brestois 29
Shots20 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession69%31%
Corners13 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 33′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedKenny Lala · Stade Brestois 29 · 54′ · 0.00 xG · on targetAyyoub Bouaddi · Lille · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 60′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSoriba Diaoune · Lille · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 36′ · 0.03 xG · on targetHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGaëtan Perrin · Lille · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 24′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 49′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRomain Perraud · Lille · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 58′ · 0.06 xG · goalDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 82′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 52′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 4′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 5′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 18′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSoriba Diaoune · Lille · 20′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 18′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 62′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 18′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 25′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 17′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 10′ · 0.16 xG · on targetGaëtan Perrin · Lille · 71′ · 0.21 xG · goalRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 57′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 20 shots, 5 on target, 1.53 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Gaëtan Perrin · Lille · 71′Remy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 58′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 1.53 xG · Stade Brestois 29 0.71 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.59 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.59 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible away split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.18 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.18 shots/match11.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.6 shots/match▲ShotsLille · Stade Brestois 2911.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleStade Brestois 29Baseline
Shots14.6 shots/match11.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lille
1Draws
0Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29 — Lille · Ligue 13–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lille favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 2 · 5 too close

1.59 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/221.32 goals/match
1.41 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/221.55 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2211.8 shots/match
10.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2212.8 shots/match
4.73 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/223.95 shots/match
3.82 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/224.45 shots/match
54.9%Possessionseason · 22/2243.1%
6.32 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/224.23 corners/match
3.91 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 22/225.5 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/22▲1.91 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2213.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2227%
64%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲68%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lille86.1
Stade Brestois 2913.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lille77.8
Stade Brestois 2947.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lille68.5
Stade Brestois 2935.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lille80.6
Stade Brestois 2986.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lille50
Stade Brestois 2954.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lille97.2
Stade Brestois 2936.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lille73.6
Stade Brestois 2951.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
54.2%Possession5/539.4%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.7 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/104.4 shots/match
51.6%Possession10/1042.5%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1.59 goals/match▲Goals scored22/221.32 goals/match
1.41 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/221.55 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots22/2211.8 shots/match
4.73 shots/match▲Shots on target22/223.95 shots/match
54.9%Possession22/2243.1%
6.32 corners/matchCorners22/224.23 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards22/221.91 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2213.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.64 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.18 goals/match
1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.91 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots11/119.18 shots/match
4.91 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.09 shots/match
52.5%Possession11/1140.9%
6.64 corners/matchCorners11/112.91 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards11/112.09 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.93 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLilleStade Brestois 29
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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