PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 20 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Marseille
Shots12 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession32%68%
Corners3 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 39′ · 0.01 xG · on targetNayef Aguerd · Marseille · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEmerson Palmieri · Marseille · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNayef Aguerd · Marseille · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 6′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Pavard · Marseille · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEthan Nwaneri · Marseille · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 29′ · 0.03 xG · goalJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 59′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHamed Junior Traorè · Marseille · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetQuinten Timber · Marseille · 59′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMichel Diaz · Stade Brestois 29 · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 10′ · 0.07 xG · goalDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 14′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedQuinten Timber · Marseille · 27′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 56′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 62′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 35′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNayef Aguerd · Marseille · 55′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 15′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 41′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 82′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.13 xG. Marseille: 17 shots, 4 on target, 1.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 10′Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 29′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 1.13 xG · Marseille 1.45 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Marseille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.09 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.09 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsStade Brestois 29 · Marseille14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStade Brestois 29MarseilleBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match14.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match10.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Stade Brestois 29
0Draws
1Marseille
Marseille — Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 13–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 8 · 4 too close

1.35 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲2.09 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.35 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲14.2 shots/match
13 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲10.3 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲5.65 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲4.17 shots/match
42.7%Possessionseason · 23/2358.1%
4.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/234.78 corners/match
5.35 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲3.7 corners/match
1.87 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 23/232.39 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2312.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2326%
70%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲74%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 292.8
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2947.2
Marseille89.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2936.1
Marseille63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2986.1
Marseille58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2944.5
Marseille69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2930.6
Marseille52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2947.2
Marseille72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
40%Possession5/551.2%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/515.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.2 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.2 shots/match
40.1%Possession10/1057.1%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲2.09 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲1.35 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots23/23▲14.2 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲5.65 shots/match
42.7%Possession23/2358.1%
4.17 corners/matchCorners23/234.78 corners/match
1.87 cards/matchCards23/232.39 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls23/2312.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.58 goals/match
1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/matchShots12/1214.6 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲5.17 shots/match
44.3%Possession12/1257.1%
5.33 corners/matchCorners12/124.67 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards12/122.67 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 20 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Marseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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