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Ligue 1 · 2025Stade Francis-Le Blé

Stade Brestois 2–0 Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 1

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Stade Brestois won 2–0.

Shots
1217
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.131.42
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Stade Brestois 29 beat Marseille 2–0. Recorded in this match (Stade Brestois 29 – Marseille): shots 12–17, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.13–1.42, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Marseille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.09 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.09 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match11.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match ▲ShotsStade Brestois 29 · Marseille14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStade Brestois 29MarseilleBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match14.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match10.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots17 shotsStade Brestois 12 shots, Olympique de Marseille 17 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsStade Brestois 4 shots, Olympique de Marseille 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.13 xG1.42 xGStade Brestois 1.13 xG, Olympique de Marseille 1.42 xG
  • Possession32%68%Stade Brestois 32%, Olympique de Marseille 68%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersStade Brestois 3 corners, Olympique de Marseille 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls17 foulsStade Brestois 10 fouls, Olympique de Marseille 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card4 cardsStade Brestois 1 card, Olympique de Marseille 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 39′ · 0.01 xG · on targetNayef Aguerd · Marseille · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEmerson Palmieri · Marseille · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNayef Aguerd · Marseille · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 6′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Pavard · Marseille · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEthan Nwaneri · Marseille · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 29′ · 0.03 xG · goalJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 59′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHamed Junior Traorè · Marseille · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetQuinten Timber · Marseille · 59′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMichel Diaz · Stade Brestois 29 · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 10′ · 0.07 xG · goalDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 14′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedQuinten Timber · Marseille · 27′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 56′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 62′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 35′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNayef Aguerd · Marseille · 55′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 15′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 41′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 82′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.13 xG. Marseille: 17 shots, 4 on target, 1.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 10′Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 29′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 1.13 xG · Marseille 1.45 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Stade Brestois
0Draws
4Olympique de Marseille
Olympique de Marseille — Stade Brestois · Ligue 13–0
Olympique de Marseille — Stade Brestois · Ligue 14–1
Stade Brestois — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–5
Stade Brestois — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–0
Olympique de Marseille — Stade Brestois · Ligue 12–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Brestois favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Olympique de Marseille in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Brestois23 matchesOlympique de Marseille23 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲ 2.09 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 1.35 goals/match
1.43 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.79 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 14.2 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲ 5.7 shots/match
42.6%Possession23/23● 58.1%
4.17 corners/matchCorners23/23● 4.78 corners/match
1.87 cards/matchCards23/232.39 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls23/2312.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 20 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade BrestoisOlympique de Marseille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headStade Brestois — Olympique de Marseille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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