PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 20:05 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

Metz

LLLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis Saint GermainMetz
Shots17 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession67%33%
Corners4 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 7′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBoubacar Traoré · Metz · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Mbaye · Paris Saint Germain · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJessy Deminguet · Metz · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLucas Hernández · Paris Saint Germain · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 9′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLucas Hernández · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetIbrahim Mbaye · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 77′ · 0.16 xG · goalDro Fernández · Paris Saint Germain · 21′ · 0.17 xG · on targetWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 79′ · 0.22 xG · on targetDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 3′ · 0.46 xG · goalBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.70 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 17 shots, 7 on target, 2.15 xG. Metz: 3 shots, 0 on target, 0.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Désiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 3′Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 45′Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 2.15 xG · Metz 0.09 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Metz's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.96 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.96 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.7 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Metz8.78 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainMetzBaseline
Shots17.7 shots/match8.78 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against8.43 shots/match14.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

68.5%▲PossessionParis Saint Germain · Metz48.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainMetzBaseline
Possession68.5%48.3%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Paris Saint Germain
0Draws
0Metz
Metz — Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 12–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Metz in 0 · 4 too close

2.26 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/230.96 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/232.26 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
17.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/238.78 shots/match
8.43 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2314.9 shots/match
6.78 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/232.91 shots/match
2.83 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/235.91 shots/match
68.5%Possessionseason · 23/2348.3%
6.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/233.74 corners/match
2.96 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/234.91 corners/match
1.04 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 23/231.78 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
52%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2317%
91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2361%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Metz47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Metz10.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Metz4.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain63.9
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain5.6
Metz19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain91.7
Metz19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain73.6
Metz12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18 shots/match▲Shots5/58.4 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
65.8%Possession5/544.6%
6 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
0.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.4 shots/match▲Shots10/108.9 shots/match
6.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match
64.2%Possession10/1048.6%
5.7 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match
0.7 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
2.26 goals/match▲Goals scored23/230.96 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/232.26 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.7 shots/match▲Shots23/238.78 shots/match
6.78 shots/match▲Shots on target23/232.91 shots/match
68.5%Possession23/2348.3%
6.13 corners/matchCorners23/233.74 corners/match
1.04 cards/matchCards23/231.78 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 12 matches
2.73 goals/match▲Goals scored11/121 goals/match
0.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/122.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.2 shots/match▲Shots11/128 shots/match
7.45 shots/match▲Shots on target11/122.5 shots/match
68.5%Possession11/1248.6%
6.36 corners/matchCorners11/123.5 corners/match
1.09 cards/matchCards11/122.08 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls11/1210.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis Saint GermainMetz
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match