UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 17 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstádio da LuzFull-time recap

Benfica

LWWLW

0–1Full-time recap

Real Madrid

LWLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Benfica	Real Madrid
Shots	10 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.41 xG/match	1.11 xG/match▲
Possession	42%	58%
Corners	3 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Benfica: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.40 xG. Real Madrid: 16 shots, 7 on target, 1.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Benfica 0.40 xG · Real Madrid 1.11 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Benfica's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Benfica's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Benfica's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.15 goals/match	1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid have a visible away split

moderate

Real Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season19.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15 shots/match	19.1 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14 shots/match▲ShotsBenfica · Real Madrid19.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Benfica	Real Madrid	Baseline
Shots	14 shots/match	19.1 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	11.1 shots/match	15.3 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Benfica

0Draws

0Real Madrid

28 Jan 2026Benfica — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League4–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Benfica favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 6 · 3 too close

1.15 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/9▲2.44 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/91.33 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/9▲2.23 xG/match

1.29 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 9/91.51 xG/match

14 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/9▲19.1 shots/match

11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 13/915.3 shots/match

4.46 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/9▲7.22 shots/match

3.92 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/96.56 shots/match

47.3%Possessionseason · 13/958%

5.23 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/96.56 corners/match

4.92 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/9▲4.33 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/910.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

46%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/933%

54%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/9▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Benfica29.8

Real Madrid89.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Benfica41.8

Real Madrid89.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Benfica78.4

Real Madrid33.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Benfica63.1

Real Madrid86.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Benfica39.3

Real Madrid35.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Benfica67.9

Real Madrid89.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Benfica50.6

Real Madrid75.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.8 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

1.63 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.95 xG/match

14.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲17.6 shots/match

5.4 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match

41.4%Possession5/557%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 9 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/9▲2.44 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/91.33 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲2.23 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShots10/9▲19.1 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/9▲7.22 shots/match

45.8%Possession10/958%

5.3 corners/matchCorners10/96.56 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/910.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 9 matches

1.15 goals/matchGoals scored13/9▲2.44 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/91.33 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲2.23 xG/match

14 shots/matchShots13/9▲19.1 shots/match

4.46 shots/matchShots on target13/9▲7.22 shots/match

47.3%Possession13/958%

5.23 corners/matchCorners13/96.56 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls13/910.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 5 matches

1.57 goals/matchGoals scored7/5▲2.4 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/51.6 goals/match

1.68 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.66 xG/match

16.6 shots/match▲Shots7/515 shots/match

5.29 shots/matchShots on target7/5▲6.8 shots/match

47.4%Possession7/562.4%

5 corners/matchCorners7/54.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.43 fouls/matchFouls7/510.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

20 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/120 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples13 / 9home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 18 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Benfica's recent record differs from the season

Real Madrid have a visible away split

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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