PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Santiago BernabéuFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridReal Sociedad
Shots11 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners4 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Sociedad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Real Sociedad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Sociedad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.42 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.42 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.6 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Real Sociedad13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridReal SociedadBaseline
Shots18.6 shots/match13 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.42 corners/match▲CornersReal Madrid · Real Sociedad5.83 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridReal SociedadBaseline
Corners6.42 corners/match5.83 corners/match4.62 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Real Madrid
0Draws
0Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Real Sociedad in 0 · 5 too close

2.21 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/241.42 goals/match
0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.46 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
18.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2413 shots/match
10.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2412.9 shots/match
7.04 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/244.83 shots/match
3.04 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/243.92 shots/match
59%Possessionseason · 24/2449.1%
6.42 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/245.83 corners/match
3.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/244.54 corners/match
1.92 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 24/242.17 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2414.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
46%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/244%
92%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2488%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5
Real Sociedad42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid92.5
Real Sociedad72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid90.8
Real Sociedad45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid97.5
Real Sociedad67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid12.5
Real Sociedad62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid87.5
Real Sociedad77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid70
Real Sociedad76.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match
59.4%Possession5/538.2%
7 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.6 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.6 shots/match
57.9%Possession10/1045.8%
6.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
9.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
2.21 goals/match▲Goals scored24/241.42 goals/match
0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.46 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.6 shots/match▲Shots24/2413 shots/match
7.04 shots/match▲Shots on target24/244.83 shots/match
59%Possession24/2449.1%
6.42 corners/matchCorners24/245.83 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards24/242.17 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls24/2414.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
2.42 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.08 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.5 shots/match▲Shots12/1213.3 shots/match
7.58 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.83 shots/match
59.9%Possession12/1249.7%
6.58 corners/matchCorners12/125.83 corners/match
2.58 cards/matchCards12/122.33 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1214.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridReal Sociedad
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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