PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

Lorient

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Lorient
Shots12 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession42%58%
Corners7 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Daouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 13′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLaurent Abergel · Lorient · 66′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAiyegun Tosin · Lorient · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLaurent Abergel · Lorient · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 59′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMontassar Talbi · Lorient · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPablo Pagis · Lorient · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 29′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 13′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 27′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMontassar Talbi · Lorient · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetThéo Le Bris · Lorient · 23′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.14 xG · on targetRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 50′ · 0.19 xG · goalRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 36′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 77′ · 0.77 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.73 xG. Lorient: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Remy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 50′Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 1.73 xG · Lorient 0.76 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lorient's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lorient's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match11.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Stade Brestois 29
1Draws
0Lorient
Lorient — Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 13–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lorient in 2 · 11 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/211.29 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/211.57 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/2111.7 shots/match
12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲10.6 shots/match
3.95 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/213.86 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.95 shots/match
43.7%Possessionseason · 21/2143.9%
4.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/213.24 corners/match
5.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/215.29 corners/match
1.95 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/211.86 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2110.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2119%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2167%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 2913.9
Lorient19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2945.4
Lorient36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2937
Lorient57.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2986.1
Lorient80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2950
Lorient11.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2936.1
Lorient8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2950
Lorient22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots5/510.8 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match
43.2%Possession5/545.4%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots10/1011.2 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
43%Possession10/1044.1%
3.9 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/100.9 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored21/211.29 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed21/211.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots21/2111.7 shots/match
3.95 shots/matchShots on target21/213.86 shots/match
43.7%Possession21/2143.9%
4.38 corners/matchCorners21/213.24 corners/match
1.95 cards/matchCards21/211.86 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls21/2110.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.64 goals/match
1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.55 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots11/1110.7 shots/match
4.82 shots/match▲Shots on target11/112.82 shots/match
45.4%Possession11/1143.5%
5.55 corners/matchCorners11/113.64 corners/match
1.73 cards/matchCards11/111.55 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls11/119.64 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Lorient
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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