PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeAllianz RivieraFull-time recap

Nice

LLDLW
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNiceStade Brestois 29
Shots15 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession60%40%
Corners6 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match21 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match3 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kaïl Boudache · Nice · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 64′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 69′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Nice · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDante · Nice · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 26′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMorgan Sanson · Nice · 40′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKaïl Boudache · Nice · 78′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSoumaila Coulibaly · Stade Brestois 29 · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSoumaila Coulibaly · Stade Brestois 29 · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAli Abdi · Nice · 63′ · 0.06 xG · goalKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCharles Vanhoutte · Nice · 40′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 79′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTom Louchet · Nice · 87′ · 0.09 xG · on targetRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 48′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAli Abdi · Nice · 60′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKojo Peprah Oppong · Nice · 38′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAli Abdi · Nice · 87′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 23′ · 0.42 xG · goalElye Wahi · Nice · 71′ · 0.45 xG · goalRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 15′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nice: 15 shots, 7 on target, 1.39 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 12 shots, 2 on target, 1.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ali Abdi · Nice · 63′Elye Wahi · Nice · 71′Romain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 15′Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 23′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 1.39 xG · Stade Brestois 29 1.70 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Nice's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible away split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match11.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nice's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.35 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match▲ShotsNice · Stade Brestois 2911.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNiceStade Brestois 29Baseline
Shots11.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against15.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nice
0Draws
1Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29 — Nice · Ligue 14–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nice favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 6 · 6 too close

1.35 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/201.3 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/20▲1.65 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/2011.8 shots/match
15.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/20▲12.5 shots/match
4.3 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.9 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/20▲4.55 shots/match
48.5%Possessionseason · 20/2043.8%
4.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/204.25 corners/match
5.6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲5.05 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/20▲1.95 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2013.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/20▲25%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2065%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice41.7
Stade Brestois 2925
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice50
Stade Brestois 2940.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice6.5
Stade Brestois 2931.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice52.8
Stade Brestois 2986.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice69.4
Stade Brestois 2954.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice63.9
Stade Brestois 2933.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice56.9
Stade Brestois 2950
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
52%Possession5/542.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/516.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104 shots/match
49.4%Possession10/1043.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1015.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored20/201.3 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲1.65 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots20/2011.8 shots/match
4.3 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.9 shots/match
48.5%Possession20/2043.8%
4.95 corners/matchCorners20/204.25 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards20/201.95 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls20/2013.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots10/109 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match
48.6%Possession10/1041.9%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.1 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNiceStade Brestois 29
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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