PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

Auxerre

WLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricToulouseAuxerre
Shots12 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession50%50%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pape Diop · Toulouse · 16′ · 0.01 xG · on targetCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRomain Faivre · Auxerre · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 30′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 48′ · 0.02 xG · on targetYann Gboho · Toulouse · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 86′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRomain Faivre · Auxerre · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKévin Danois · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 9′ · 0.16 xG · on targetDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 25′ · 0.21 xG · on targetEmersonn · Toulouse · 55′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 82′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 12 shots, 4 on target, 0.74 xG. Auxerre: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 0.74 xG · Auxerre 0.57 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.55 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.55 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse have a visible home split

moderate

Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.7 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14.3 fouls/match▲FoulsToulouse · Auxerre13.8 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricToulouseAuxerreBaseline
Fouls14.3 fouls/match13.8 fouls/match12.5 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Toulouse
0Draws
1Auxerre
Auxerre — Toulouse · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Auxerre in 1 · 5 too close

1.55 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/200.7 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.45 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2010.6 shots/match
11.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/2012.1 shots/match
4.15 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.3 shots/match
3.45 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/204.85 shots/match
41.2%Possessionseason · 20/2044.4%
4.45 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/204.9 corners/match
5.35 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲4.65 corners/match
2.35 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 20/202.6 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2013.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2020%
70%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2045%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse2.8
Auxerre30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse54.6
Auxerre12
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse75
Auxerre41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse97.2
Auxerre41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse86.1
Auxerre86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse41.7
Auxerre58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse61.1
Auxerre42.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match
41%Possession5/545.6%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/514.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.7 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
40.6%Possession10/1044.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.55 goals/match▲Goals scored20/200.7 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.45 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shots20/2010.6 shots/match
4.15 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.3 shots/match
41.2%Possession20/2044.4%
4.45 corners/matchCorners20/204.9 corners/match
2.35 cards/matchCards20/202.6 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls20/2013.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 10 matches
1.73 goals/match▲Goals scored11/100.4 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots11/109.7 shots/match
4.91 shots/match▲Shots on target11/103.1 shots/match
41.9%Possession11/1046.8%
4.91 corners/matchCorners11/104.4 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCards11/102.4 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls11/1014 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.89 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsToulouseAuxerre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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