PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTCFull timeStade du MoustoirFull-time recap

Lorient

WDDWW
2–1Full-time recap

Nantes

LLWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLorientNantes
Shots5 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession57%43%
Corners1 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match▲5 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pablo Pagis · Lorient · 39′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 60′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 4′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 22′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKelvin Amian · Nantes · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArsène Kouassi · Lorient · 89′ · 0.05 xG · goalMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 6′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 69′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 40′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 57′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 74′ · 0.12 xG · goalAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 32′ · 0.32 xG · goalRémy Cabella · Nantes · 36′ · 0.54 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lorient: 5 shots, 4 on target, 0.54 xG. Nantes: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 32′Arsène Kouassi · Lorient · 89′Matthis Abline · Nantes · 74′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lorient 0.54 xG · Nantes 1.01 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lorient's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.95 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.95 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lorient show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lorient's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match▲ShotsLorient · Nantes10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLorientNantesBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match10.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against10.5 shots/match14.9 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lorient
1Draws
0Nantes
Nantes — Lorient · Ligue 11–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lorient favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Nantes in 0 · 5 too close

1.35 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/200.95 goals/match
1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.8 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2010.3 shots/match
10.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2014.9 shots/match
3.95 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/202.95 shots/match
3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/205.15 shots/match
43.2%Possessionseason · 20/2043.5%
3.05 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/203.1 corners/match
5.2 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/205.85 corners/match
1.95 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/201.95 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2012.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2015%
70%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2065%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lorient13.9
Nantes19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lorient42.6
Nantes10.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lorient61.1
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lorient86.1
Nantes36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lorient18
Nantes43
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lorient2.8
Nantes8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lorient21.5
Nantes19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
41.2%Possession5/547.4%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
8 fouls/matchFouls5/515.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
42.5%Possession10/1044.2%
3.1 corners/matchCorners10/102.8 corners/match
1.1 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.35 goals/match▲Goals scored20/200.95 goals/match
1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shots20/2010.3 shots/match
3.95 shots/match▲Shots on target20/202.95 shots/match
43.2%Possession20/2043.5%
3.05 corners/matchCorners20/203.1 corners/match
1.95 cards/matchCards20/201.95 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls20/2012.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots10/109.5 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match
44.4%Possession10/1042.3%
2.8 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLorientNantes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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