PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis FCMarseille
Shots9 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Weah · Marseille · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOtávio · Paris FC · 9′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLeonardo Balerdi · Marseille · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 9′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEthan Nwaneri · Marseille · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEthan Nwaneri · Marseille · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuca Koleosho · Paris FC · 76′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLeonardo Balerdi · Marseille · 15′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLeonardo Balerdi · Marseille · 74′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 41′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 49′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 27′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNayef Aguerd · Marseille · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Weah · Marseille · 22′ · 0.10 xG · on targetEthan Nwaneri · Marseille · 49′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 15′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 82′ · 0.27 xG · goalMarshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 76′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 53′ · 0.64 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Marseille · 18′ · 0.82 xG · goalIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.81 xG. Marseille: 18 shots, 4 on target, 2.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 82′Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC · 90′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 18′Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 53′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 1.81 xG · Marseille 2.43 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.4 shots/match11.6 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible home split

moderate

Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match11.6 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Paris FC
0Draws
1Marseille
Marseille — Paris FC · Ligue 15–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 8 · 4 too close

1.3 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/20▲2.3 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/20▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/20▲14.6 shots/match
11.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/20▲9.5 shots/match
3.45 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/20▲5.85 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/204.05 shots/match
54.2%Possessionseason · 20/2059.1%
4.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/205.05 corners/match
4.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲3.6 corners/match
2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 20/202.25 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2012.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/20▲30%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/20▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC80.6
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC35.2
Marseille93.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC54.6
Marseille73.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC8.3
Marseille58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC34.7
Marseille55.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC36.1
Marseille69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC32.6
Marseille75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
52.4%Possession5/556.4%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.4 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.9 shots/match
51.8%Possession10/1057.9%
3.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲2.3 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots20/20▲14.6 shots/match
3.45 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲5.85 shots/match
54.2%Possession20/2059.1%
4.25 corners/matchCorners20/205.05 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards20/202.25 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls20/2012.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.9 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.5 shots/match
57.8%Possession10/1057.5%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.83 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis FCMarseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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