PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 28 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeJan Breydel StadiumFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricClub Brugge KVMarseille
Shots11 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.67 xG/match▲0.99 xG/match
Possession38%62%
Corners4 corners/match10 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 22′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 35′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTimothy Weah · Marseille · 36′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTimothy Weah · Marseille · 61′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeoffrey Kondogbia · Marseille · 44′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRomeo Vermant · Club Brugge KV · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeoffrey Kondogbia · Marseille · 48′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 60′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 77′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Weah · Marseille · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAleksandar Stanković · Club Brugge KV · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 42′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKyriani Sabbe · Club Brugge KV · 19′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 57′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 17′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAleksandar Stanković · Club Brugge KV · 25′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAleksandar Stanković · Club Brugge KV · 66′ · 0.11 xG · on targetAleksandar Stanković · Club Brugge KV · 79′ · 0.13 xG · goalPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Diakhon · Club Brugge KV · 4′ · 0.16 xG · goalPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 61′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRomeo Vermant · Club Brugge KV · 11′ · 0.17 xG · goalMamadou Diakhon · Club Brugge KV · 16′ · 0.25 xG · on targetRomeo Vermant · Club Brugge KV · 85′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 90′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedChristos Tzolis · Club Brugge KV · 74′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Club Brugge KV: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.70 xG. Marseille: 18 shots, 9 on target, 0.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Mamadou Diakhon · Club Brugge KV · 4′Romeo Vermant · Club Brugge KV · 11′Aleksandar Stanković · Club Brugge KV · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Club Brugge KV 1.70 xG · Marseille 0.95 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Club Brugge KV's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Club Brugge KV have a visible home split

moderate

Club Brugge KV's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20 shots/match14.9 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Marseille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsClub Brugge KV · Marseille13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricClub Brugge KVMarseilleBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match13.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against16.4 shots/match14.1 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Club Brugge KV favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 3 · 4 too close

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/81.38 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/81.75 goals/match
1.52 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.08 xG/match
2.12 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.51 xG/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/813.8 shots/match
16.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/8▲14.1 shots/match
6.33 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/85.38 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/86.25 shots/match
48.8%Possessionseason · 12/855.3%
4.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/85.25 corners/match
5.17 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/8▲4.63 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
8.67 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/813.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/813%
75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/863%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Club Brugge KV40.5
Marseille82.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Club Brugge KV76.9
Marseille54.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Club Brugge KV28.6
Marseille28.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Club Brugge KV70.2
Marseille36.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Club Brugge KV8.3
Marseille79.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Club Brugge KV34.5
Marseille66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Club Brugge KV47
Marseille66.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52 goals/match
1.58 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.24 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.2 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
43.8%Possession5/558%
2.6 corners/matchCorners5/57.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 8 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/81.38 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/81.75 goals/match
1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.08 xG/match
14.4 shots/matchShots10/813.8 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/85.38 shots/match
47.6%Possession10/855.3%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/85.25 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/813.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 8 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored12/81.38 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed12/81.75 goals/match
1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.08 xG/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shots12/813.8 shots/match
6.33 shots/match▲Shots on target12/85.38 shots/match
48.8%Possession12/855.3%
4.33 corners/matchCorners12/85.25 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.67 fouls/matchFouls12/813.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 4 matches
3.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/41.25 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/42.25 goals/match
2.01 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.93 xG/match
20 shots/match▲Shots6/413.3 shots/match
8.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/45.5 shots/match
47.8%Possession6/456.3%
4.5 corners/matchCorners6/44.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.83 fouls/matchFouls6/412.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples12 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsClub Brugge KVMarseille
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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