UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 28 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeLotto ParkFull-time recap

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise

LLWLL

1–0Full-time recap

Atalanta

DWWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	Atalanta
Shots	8 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1 xG/match▲	0.87 xG/match
Possession	36%	64%
Corners	0 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.98 xG. Atalanta: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.85 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 0.98 xG · Atalanta 0.85 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.25 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible away split

weak

Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12.3 shots/match	14.9 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Atalanta have recorded the higher season possession share.

35%▲PossessionRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise · Atalanta52.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	Atalanta	Baseline
Possession	35%	52.6%	50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Atalanta in 8 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.25 goals/match

2.13 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.25 goals/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲1.85 xG/match

2.36 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.38 xG/match

11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲14.9 shots/match

13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲11.4 shots/match

4.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.75 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/84.75 shots/match

35%Possessionseason · 8/852.6%

3.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/84.5 corners/match

5.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲3.5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/89.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲38%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/863%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise1.2

Atalanta65.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise33.7

Atalanta40.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise36

Atalanta60.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise91.7

Atalanta56

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise65.5

Atalanta17.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise8.3

Atalanta39.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise39

Atalanta35.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

1.06 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.73 xG/match

9 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match

3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match

34%Possession5/556.8%

1.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.25 goals/match

2.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.25 goals/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.85 xG/match

11.9 shots/matchShots8/8▲14.9 shots/match

4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.75 shots/match

35%Possession8/852.6%

3.25 corners/matchCorners8/84.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls8/89.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.25 goals/match

2.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.25 goals/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.85 xG/match

11.9 shots/matchShots8/8▲14.9 shots/match

4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.75 shots/match

35%Possession8/852.6%

3.25 corners/matchCorners8/84.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls8/89.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

0.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1 goals/match

2.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.25 goals/match

0.87 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.38 xG/match

12 shots/matchShots4/412.3 shots/match

5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.5 shots/match

37.5%Possession4/449.5%

3 corners/matchCorners4/44 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

Atalanta have a visible away split

The teams have contrasting possession records

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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