PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeNew Balance ArenaFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

Parma

DLWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaParma
Shots21 shots/match▲15 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners6 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Parma11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaParmaBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match14.6 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Atalanta have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.6%▲PossessionAtalanta · Parma43.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaParmaBaseline
Possession55.6%43.4%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atalanta
1Draws
0Parma
Parma — Atalanta · Serie A1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Parma in 0 · 5 too close

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/220.64 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/221.18 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2211.3 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2214.6 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/222.73 shots/match
3.82 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/224.36 shots/match
55.6%Possessionseason · 22/2243.4%
5.59 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/223.59 corners/match
4.73 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/224.77 corners/match
1.45 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 22/222 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2210.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2232%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2245%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta72.5
Parma17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta75
Parma19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta65
Parma32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta72.5
Parma67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta15
Parma26.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta92.5
Parma22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta66.9
Parma20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
0.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/51.4 shots/match
50.6%Possession5/546%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.3 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.3 shots/match
54%Possession10/1045.7%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored22/220.64 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/221.18 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots22/2211.3 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target22/222.73 shots/match
55.6%Possession22/2243.4%
5.59 corners/matchCorners22/223.59 corners/match
1.45 cards/matchCards22/222 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2210.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 11 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored12/110.64 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/111.18 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.7 shots/match▲Shots12/1110.9 shots/match
5.17 shots/match▲Shots on target12/113.09 shots/match
54.8%Possession12/1143.1%
6.42 corners/matchCorners12/113.64 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards12/112.09 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1110.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaParma
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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