PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 20:05 UTCFull timeStade Louis IIFull-time recap

Monaco

LLLLD
4–0Full-time recap

Rennes

LWWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMonacoRennes
Shots14 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners5 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Thilo Kehrer · Monaco · 6′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSebastian Szymański · Rennes · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Szymański · Rennes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 18′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMika Biereth · Monaco · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThilo Kehrer · Monaco · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 9′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKassoum Ouattara · Monaco · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 12′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 37′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 16′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Szymański · Rennes · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKassoum Ouattara · Monaco · 88′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAnsu Fati · Monaco · 33′ · 0.13 xG · goalMika Biereth · Monaco · 64′ · 0.15 xG · on targetStanis Idumbo Muzambo · Monaco · 89′ · 0.16 xG · goalMamadou Coulibaly · Monaco · 59′ · 0.36 xG · goalMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 50′ · 0.85 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monaco: 14 shots, 6 on target, 2.07 xG. Rennes: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Ansu Fati · Monaco · 33′Maghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 50′Mamadou Coulibaly · Monaco · 59′Stanis Idumbo Muzambo · Monaco · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 2.07 xG · Rennes 0.38 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Monaco's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rennes have a visible away split

strong

Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Monaco's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monaco's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.6 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Rennes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.5 shots/match▲ShotsMonaco · Rennes13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMonacoRennesBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Monaco
0Draws
1Rennes
Rennes — Monaco · Ligue 14–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Monaco favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Rennes in 5 · 7 too close

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201.5 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/20▲1.55 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/20▲13.3 shots/match
13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/2013.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/20▲4.65 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/204.35 shots/match
53.3%Possessionseason · 20/2052.2%
4.7 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/205.65 corners/match
4.15 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/204.95 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/20▲2 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2012.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/20▲25%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2075%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monaco69.4
Rennes58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monaco60.2
Rennes65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monaco28.7
Rennes35.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monaco30.6
Rennes69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monaco80.6
Rennes43
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monaco52.8
Rennes80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monaco61.1
Rennes66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.2 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/55 shots/match
49.6%Possession5/559.8%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls5/515 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.1 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match
50.6%Possession10/1052%
5 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201.5 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲1.55 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots20/20▲13.3 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲4.65 shots/match
53.3%Possession20/2052.2%
4.7 corners/matchCorners20/205.65 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards20/202 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls20/2012.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored11/101.1 goals/match
1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots11/109.8 shots/match
4.64 shots/match▲Shots on target11/103.5 shots/match
52.8%Possession11/1051.6%
4.64 corners/matchCorners11/105.2 corners/match
1.91 cards/matchCards11/102 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1010.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMonacoRennes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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