PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeParc Olympique LyonnaisFull-time recap

Lyon

LWWWW
1–0Full-time recap

Lille

WWLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLyonLille
Shots3 shots/match11 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession42%58%
Corners2 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Félix Correia · Lille · 64′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRomain Perraud · Lille · 22′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAyyoub Bouaddi · Lille · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPavel Šulc · Lyon · 74′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 28′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSoriba Diaoune · Lille · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSoriba Diaoune · Lille · 86′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAbner Vinícius · Lyon · 15′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRomain Perraud · Lille · 13′ · 0.15 xG · on targetNoah Nartey · Lyon · 37′ · 0.36 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lyon: 3 shots, 2 on target, 0.51 xG. Lille: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.46 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Noah Nartey · Lyon · 37′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lyon 0.51 xG · Lille 0.46 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lyon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lyon's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lyon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.65 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.8 corners/match▲CornersLyon · Lille6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLyonLilleBaseline
Corners5.8 corners/match6 corners/match4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Lyon
0Draws
0Lille
Lille — Lyon · Coupe de France1–2
Lille — Lyon · Ligue 10–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lyon favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 3 · 6 too close

1.65 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/201.7 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/20▲14.3 shots/match
11 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/20▲10.3 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/204.85 shots/match
3.45 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/203.9 shots/match
55.4%Possessionseason · 20/2054.1%
5.8 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/206 corners/match
4.6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲4.2 corners/match
2.15 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 20/202.45 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2011.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2025%
85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2065%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lyon86.1
Lille75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lyon72.2
Lille81.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lyon82.4
Lille63
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lyon25
Lille75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lyon73.7
Lille61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lyon86.1
Lille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lyon81.3
Lille72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match
54.4%Possession5/547.6%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1011 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.4 shots/match
55.2%Possession10/1050.1%
5 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.65 goals/matchGoals scored20/201.7 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots20/20▲14.3 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target20/204.85 shots/match
55.4%Possession20/2054.1%
5.8 corners/matchCorners20/206 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCards20/202.45 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.7 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/matchShots10/1013.1 shots/match
4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/104.8 shots/match
56.5%Possession10/1057.3%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/103.1 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.76 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLyonLille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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