PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade de la BeaujoireFull-time recap

Nantes

LLLLL
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNantesLe Havre
Shots9 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession29%71%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match3 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Gautier Lloris · Le Havre · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChidozie Awaziem · Nantes · 37′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 37′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Koffi · Le Havre · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFodé Doucouré · Le Havre · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLouis Leroux · Nantes · 54′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 37′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYanis Zouaoui · Nantes · 3′ · 0.10 xG · goalKenny Quetant · Le Havre · 86′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 54′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 60′ · 0.13 xG · on targetYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.14 xG · on targetRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 70′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 34′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.45 xG. Le Havre: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Yanis Zouaoui · Nantes · 3′Ignatius Ganago · Nantes · 34′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 1.45 xG · Le Havre 0.59 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Le Havre's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nantes's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Le Havre have a visible away split

moderate

Le Havre's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.91 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.91 shots/match10.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nantes
1Draws
0Le Havre
Le Havre — Nantes · Ligue 11–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nantes favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Le Havre in 7 · 5 too close

0.96 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/230.87 goals/match
1.74 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.26 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/2310.7 shots/match
14.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲12.6 shots/match
2.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲3.57 shots/match
4.91 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲3.96 shots/match
43.7%Possessionseason · 23/2346.7%
3.26 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/234.65 corners/match
5.91 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲4.87 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/23▲1.96 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2313.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲26%
65%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2357%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nantes19.4
Le Havre36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nantes12
Le Havre19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nantes16.7
Le Havre58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nantes41.7
Le Havre30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nantes41.7
Le Havre48.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nantes2.8
Le Havre41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nantes15.3
Le Havre39.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots5/58.2 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/52.6 shots/match
47%Possession5/549.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/match▲Shots10/109.6 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.6 shots/match
43.5%Possession10/1047.4%
2.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
0.96 goals/match▲Goals scored23/230.87 goals/match
1.74 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲1.26 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.5 shots/matchShots23/2310.7 shots/match
2.83 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲3.57 shots/match
43.7%Possession23/2346.7%
3.26 corners/matchCorners23/234.65 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards23/231.96 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls23/2313.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 11 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored12/110.45 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed12/11▲1.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/match▲Shots12/118.91 shots/match
2.83 shots/matchShots on target12/112.91 shots/match
44.1%Possession12/1144.9%
3.33 corners/matchCorners12/114 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards12/112.45 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1113.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.84 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNantesLe Havre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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