PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille 1–0 Nantes · Ligue 1

Lille

LLDDW
1–0Historical match

Nantes

LLLLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille won 1–0.

Shots
93
Shots on target
31
Expected goals
0.510.21
Possession
73%27%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat Nantes 1–0. Recorded in this match (Lille – Nantes): shots 9–3, shots on target 3–1, expected goals 0.51–0.21, possession 73%–27%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.54 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsLille · Nantes10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleNantesBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match10.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against9.63 shots/match14 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Lille have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.7% ●PossessionLille · Nantes43%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLilleNantesBaseline
Possession55.7%43%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots3 shotsLille 9 shots, Nantes 3 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotLille 3 shots, Nantes 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.51 xG0.21 xGLille 0.51 xG, Nantes 0.21 xG
  • Possession73%27%Lille 73%, Nantes 27%
  • Corners4 corners1 cornerLille 4 corners, Nantes 1 corner
  • Fouls11 fouls15 foulsLille 11 fouls, Nantes 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards1 cardLille 3 cards, Nantes 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 34′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTiago Santos · Lille · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNathan Ngoy · Lille · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 19′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 54′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNathan Ngoy · Lille · 90′ · 0.09 xG · goalIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 8′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRémy Cabella · Nantes · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 15′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.50 xG. Nantes: 3 shots, 1 on target, 0.22 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′Nathan Ngoy · Lille · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 0.50 xG · Nantes 0.22 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Lille
1Draws
1Nantes
Nantes — Lille · Ligue 10–2
Nantes — Lille · Ligue 11–0
Lille — Nantes · Ligue 11–1
Nantes — Lille · Ligue 11–2
Lille — Nantes · Ligue 12–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Nantes in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille24 matchesNantes24 matches
1.54 goals/match ▲Goals scored24/240.92 goals/match
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/241.71 goals/match
1.66 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/240.94 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots24/2410.2 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target24/242.75 shots/match
55.7% ●Possession24/2443%
6.25 corners/match ●Corners24/243.17 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards24/242.08 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls24/2412.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleNantes
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headLille — Nantes
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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