PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade du MoustoirFull-time recap

Lorient

WWLWD
2–2Full-time recap

Auxerre

LDDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLorientAuxerre
Shots15 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession50%50%
Corners3 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Fredrik Oppegård · Auxerre · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBamo Meïté · Lorient · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedThéo Le Bris · Lorient · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLaurent Abergel · Lorient · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 69′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSékou Mara · Auxerre · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPanos Katseris · Lorient · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 19′ · 0.07 xG · goalDarlin Yongwa · Lorient · 55′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSékou Mara · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 33′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Oppegård · Auxerre · 62′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 29′ · 0.11 xG · goalThéo Le Bris · Lorient · 42′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 61′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 11′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 14′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 67′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 45′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedJosué Casimir · Auxerre · 24′ · 0.28 xG · goalMarvin Senaya · Auxerre · 1′ · 0.54 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lorient: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.00 xG. Auxerre: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 19′Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 29′Marvin Senaya · Auxerre · 1′Josué Casimir · Auxerre · 24′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lorient 1.00 xG · Auxerre 1.57 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lorient's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lorient's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.42 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.42 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lorient
0Draws
1Auxerre
Auxerre — Lorient · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lorient favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Auxerre in 2 · 5 too close

1.42 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/240.79 goals/match
1.58 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.46 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2410.8 shots/match
10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2412 shots/match
3.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/243.17 shots/match
3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/244.88 shots/match
45.5%Possessionseason · 24/2444.5%
3.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/244.96 corners/match
5.13 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/24▲4.54 corners/match
1.79 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 24/242.5 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2413.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2421%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2446%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lorient30.6
Auxerre25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lorient50
Auxerre13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lorient58.3
Auxerre37
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lorient80.6
Auxerre52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lorient9.8
Auxerre86.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lorient8.3
Auxerre63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lorient27.1
Auxerre45.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
57%Possession5/546%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1011 shots/match
3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.8 shots/match
47.4%Possession10/1044.7%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.1 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
1.42 goals/match▲Goals scored24/240.79 goals/match
1.58 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲1.46 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/match▲Shots24/2410.8 shots/match
3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target24/243.17 shots/match
45.5%Possession24/2444.5%
3.38 corners/matchCorners24/244.96 corners/match
1.79 cards/matchCards24/242.5 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFouls24/2413.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.75 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.1 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.08 shots/match
46.1%Possession12/1246.3%
2.83 corners/matchCorners12/124.5 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards12/122.5 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1213.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLorientAuxerre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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