PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeStade de la BeaujoireFull-time recap

Nantes

LLLWL
0–1Full-time recap

Angers

WWLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNantesAngers
Shots13 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession48%52%
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match19 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Goduine Koyalipou · Angers · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFabien Centonze · Nantes · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBranco Van den Boomen · Angers · 59′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJordan Lefort · Angers · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCarlens Arcus · Angers · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 84′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMohamed Kaba · Nantes · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGoduine Koyalipou · Angers · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGoduine Koyalipou · Angers · 21′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPierrick Capelle · Angers · 59′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 69′ · 0.05 xG · on targetChidozie Awaziem · Nantes · 44′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 24′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 35′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAmine Sbai · Angers · 55′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMohamed Kaba · Nantes · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAmine Sbai · Angers · 57′ · 0.10 xG · on targetGoduine Koyalipou · Angers · 9′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 83′ · 0.13 xG · on targetLouis Leroux · Nantes · 41′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedAmine Sbai · Angers · 52′ · 0.18 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 13 shots, 3 on target, 0.83 xG. Angers: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Amine Sbai · Angers · 52′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 0.83 xG · Angers 0.66 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Angers's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Angers's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Angers's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.92 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nantes
0Draws
1Angers
Angers — Nantes · Ligue 14–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nantes favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Angers in 6 · 7 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/250.92 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/259.28 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/2513.6 shots/match
2.76 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲3.44 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/254.88 shots/match
43.2%Possessionseason · 25/2542.8%
3.16 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/253.48 corners/match
5.76 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲5.08 corners/match
2.04 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.52 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2511.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲36%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/25▲64%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nantes19.4
Angers8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nantes10.2
Angers15.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nantes17.6
Angers37
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nantes41.7
Angers19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nantes47.2
Angers16.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nantes2.8
Angers13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nantes18.1
Angers15.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3 shots/match
42.2%Possession5/543.4%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots10/1010.4 shots/match
3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.8 shots/match
44.8%Possession10/1045.9%
3.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.5 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored25/250.92 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/match▲Shots25/259.28 shots/match
2.76 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲3.44 shots/match
43.2%Possession25/2542.8%
3.16 corners/matchCorners25/253.48 corners/match
2.04 cards/matchCards25/251.52 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
0.92 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.54 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.31 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/match▲Shots13/137.92 shots/match
2.85 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.54 shots/match
44.4%Possession13/1339.9%
3.31 corners/matchCorners13/132.77 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCards13/131.23 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls13/1310 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.92 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNantesAngers
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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