PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Roazhon Park

Stade Rennais 1–2 Lille · Ligue 1

1–2Historical match

Lille

DDWWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille won 1–2.

Shots
128
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.181.63
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat Rennes 2–1. Recorded in this match (Rennes – Lille): shots 12–8, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.18–1.63, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rennes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rennes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.65 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes have a visible home split

moderate

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.5 shots/match13 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13 shots/match ▲ShotsRennes · Lille14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRennesLilleBaseline
Shots13 shots/match14 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match9.69 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots8 shotsStade Rennais 12 shots, Lille 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsStade Rennais 4 shots, Lille 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.18 xG1.63 xGStade Rennais 1.18 xG, Lille 1.63 xG
  • Possession60%40%Stade Rennais 60%, Lille 40%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersStade Rennais 5 corners, Lille 2 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls7 foulsStade Rennais 16 fouls, Lille 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards5 cardsStade Rennais 2 cards, Lille 5 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 50′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLudovic Blas · Rennes · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNathan Ngoy · Lille · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Szymański · Rennes · 75′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTiago Santos · Lille · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 22′ · 0.09 xG · on targetNathan Ngoy · Lille · 77′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 67′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 64′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Rouault · Rennes · 37′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 59′ · 0.20 xG · goalMahdi Camara · Rennes · 70′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 88′ · 0.27 xG · on targetMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 2′ · 0.32 xG · goalHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 47′ · 0.90 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.18 xG. Lille: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 59′Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 2′Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 47′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 1.18 xG · Lille 1.65 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Stade Rennais
2Draws
2Lille
Lille — Stade Rennais · Ligue 10–2
Stade Rennais — Lille · Ligue 10–2
Lille — Stade Rennais · Ligue 11–0
Lille — Stade Rennais · Ligue 12–2
Stade Rennais — Lille · Ligue 12–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Rennais favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Lille in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Rennais26 matchesLille26 matches
1.65 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/261.54 goals/match
1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.27 goals/match
1.46 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 1.62 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 14 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target26/264.5 shots/match
52.6%Possession26/26● 55.2%
5.35 corners/matchCorners26/26● 6.04 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards25/252.32 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade RennaisLille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headStade Rennais — Lille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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