Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeRoazhon ParkFull-time recap

Rennes

LWWWW

1–2Full-time recap

Lille

DDWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Rennes	Lille
Shots	12 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.18 xG/match	1.63 xG/match▲
Possession	60%	40%
Corners	5 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	7 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	5 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Rennes: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.18 xG. Lille: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 1.18 xG · Lille 1.65 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rennes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rennes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rennes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.65 goals/match	1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes have a visible home split

moderate

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.5 shots/match	13 shots/match	11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13 shots/match▲ShotsRennes · Lille14 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Rennes	Lille	Baseline
Shots	13 shots/match	14 shots/match	11.5 shots/match
Shots against	13.4 shots/match	9.69 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Rennes

0Draws

0Lille

3 Jan 2026Lille — Rennes · Ligue 10–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rennes favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 5 · 6 too close

1.65 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/261.54 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/26▲1.27 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

13 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/26▲14 shots/match

13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/26▲9.69 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/264.5 shots/match

4.08 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/26▲3.69 shots/match

52.6%Possessionseason · 26/2655.2%

5.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/266.04 corners/match

4.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/26▲3.62 corners/match

1.92 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.32 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2611.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2631%

81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2669%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rennes63.9

Lille80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rennes71.3

Lille71.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rennes36.1

Lille75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rennes58.3

Lille69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rennes36.1

Lille50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rennes75

Lille91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rennes64.5

Lille68.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

0.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.6 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.6 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

55%Possession5/559%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match

1.5 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

13 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.3 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14 shots/match▲Shots10/1013 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match

56.2%Possession10/1053.6%

5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match

1.56 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match

14.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches

1.65 goals/match▲Goals scored26/261.54 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲1.27 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

13 shots/matchShots26/26▲14 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target26/264.5 shots/match

52.6%Possession26/2655.2%

5.35 corners/matchCorners26/266.04 corners/match

1.92 cards/matchCards25/252.32 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches

1.85 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.54 goals/match

1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.46 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

15.5 shots/match▲Shots13/1313 shots/match

5.23 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134.46 shots/match

52.8%Possession13/1355.8%

5.92 corners/matchCorners13/135.77 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards12/122.75 cards/match

13.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.15 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Rennes's recent record differs from the season

Rennes have a visible home split

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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