PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeAllianz RivieraFull-time recap

Nice

DDLDL
0–4Full-time recap

Rennes

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNiceRennes
Shots13 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession40%60%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mousa Tamari · Rennes · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTom Louchet · Nice · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMelvin Bard · Nice · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNordan Mukiele · Rennes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · goalMousa Tamari · Rennes · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rongier · Rennes · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJonathan Clauss · Nice · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 13′ · 0.08 xG · goalKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Nice · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Sanson · Nice · 69′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAbdulay Juma Bah · Nice · 69′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 74′ · 0.12 xG · goalKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Nice · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Nice · 53′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Nice · 65′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedTiago Gouveia · Nice · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 44′ · 0.17 xG · on targetArnaud Nordin · Rennes · 31′ · 0.18 xG · on targetSebastian Szymański · Rennes · 20′ · 0.22 xG · goalMorgan Sanson · Nice · 90′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedKaïl Boudache · Nice · 69′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Mendy · Nice · 90′ · 0.56 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 36′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nice: 14 shots, 2 on target, 2.28 xG. Rennes: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.69 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 13′Sebastian Szymański · Rennes · 20′Ludovic Blas · Rennes · 74′Nordan Mukiele · Rennes · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 2.28 xG · Rennes 1.69 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.2 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes have a visible away split

moderate

Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match13 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rennes show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rennes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match▲ShotsNice · Rennes13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNiceRennesBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match13 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against15.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nice
0Draws
0Rennes
Rennes — Nice · Ligue 11–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nice favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Rennes in 10 · 4 too close

1.2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲1.68 goals/match
1.92 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲13 shots/match
15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲13.6 shots/match
4.04 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲4.52 shots/match
5.32 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲4.12 shots/match
47.8%Possessionseason · 25/2552.3%
5.12 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/255.36 corners/match
5.68 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲4.92 corners/match
2.32 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.92 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2512.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
12%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲32%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/25▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice41.7
Rennes58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice43.5
Rennes72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice6.5
Rennes37
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice47.2
Rennes63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice58.3
Rennes34.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice69.4
Rennes75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice52.8
Rennes64.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.2 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match
45.2%Possession5/552.8%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.7 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match
48.6%Possession10/1056.3%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲1.68 goals/match
1.92 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots25/25▲13 shots/match
4.04 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲4.52 shots/match
47.8%Possession25/2552.3%
5.12 corners/matchCorners25/255.36 corners/match
2.32 cards/matchCards25/251.92 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls25/2512.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.46 goals/match
1.62 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.77 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shots13/1310.5 shots/match
4.69 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.77 shots/match
46.8%Possession13/1352.5%
5.38 corners/matchCorners13/134.77 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCards13/132.08 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.01 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNiceRennes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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