UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 17 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEtihad StadiumFull-time recap

Manchester City

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1–2Full-time recap

Real Madrid

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Real Madrid
Shots	22 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Expected goals	1.91 xG/match	2.93 xG/match▲
Possession	47%	53%
Corners	9 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 22 shots, 8 on target, 1.92 xG. Real Madrid: 14 shots, 7 on target, 2.92 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 1.92 xG · Real Madrid 2.92 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.6 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.3 corners/match▲CornersManchester City · Real Madrid5.83 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Real Madrid	Baseline
Corners	6.3 corners/match	5.83 corners/match	4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Manchester City have a visible home split

moderate

Manchester City's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season15.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	18.4 shots/match	15.6 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Manchester City

0Draws

2Real Madrid

11 Mar 2026Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League3–0

10 Dec 2025Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 6 · 4 too close

1.6 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/12▲2.42 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/12▲1.17 goals/match

1.69 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/12▲2.22 xG/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 10/121.5 xG/match

15.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/12▲17.7 shots/match

9.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1215 shots/match

6.8 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/126.92 shots/match

3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/126.25 shots/match

58.7%Possessionseason · 10/1255.9%

6.3 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/125.83 corners/match

3.3 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/125.42 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1210.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/12▲33%

80%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/12▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City91.7

Real Madrid86.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City70.5

Real Madrid87

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City82.6

Real Madrid41.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City44

Real Madrid79.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City17.9

Real Madrid36.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City91.7

Real Madrid75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City66.7

Real Madrid71.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match

1.57 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.85 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match

6 shots/matchShots on target5/56.2 shots/match

54.2%Possession5/554.8%

7 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

1.69 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.95 xG/match

15.6 shots/matchShots10/1016.4 shots/match

6.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105.6 shots/match

58.7%Possession10/1056.1%

6.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 12 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/12▲2.42 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/12▲1.17 goals/match

1.69 xG/matchExpected goals10/12▲2.22 xG/match

15.6 shots/matchShots10/12▲17.7 shots/match

6.8 shots/matchShots on target10/126.92 shots/match

58.7%Possession10/1255.9%

6.3 corners/matchCorners10/125.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1210.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/6▲2.33 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/61.5 goals/match

1.9 xG/matchExpected goals5/61.87 xG/match

18.4 shots/match▲Shots5/614.8 shots/match

7.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/66.83 shots/match

55.2%Possession5/660.8%

7 corners/matchCorners5/65 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

6.4 fouls/matchFouls5/69.67 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples10 / 12home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 18 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4