PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Etihad Stadium

Manchester City 1–2 Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 1–2.

Shots
2214
Shots on target
87
Expected goals
1.912.93
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Manchester City 2–1. Recorded in this match (Manchester City – Real Madrid): shots 22–14, shots on target 8–7, expected goals 1.91–2.93, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.6 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.3 corners/match ●CornersManchester City · Real Madrid5.83 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityReal MadridBaseline
Corners6.3 corners/match5.83 corners/match4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Manchester City have a visible home split

moderate

Manchester City's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.4 shots/match15.6 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots14 shotsManchester City 22 shots, Real Madrid 14 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots7 shotsManchester City 8 shots, Real Madrid 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.91 xG2.93 xGManchester City 1.91 xG, Real Madrid 2.93 xG
  • Possession47%53%Manchester City 47%, Real Madrid 53%
  • Corners9 corners6 cornersManchester City 9 corners, Real Madrid 6 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls7 foulsManchester City 6 fouls, Real Madrid 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Aurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 35′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 1′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRodri · Manchester City · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbdukodir Khusanov · Manchester City · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRayan Cherki · Manchester City · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodri · Manchester City · 4′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRodri · Manchester City · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArda Güler · Real Madrid · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTrent Alexander-Arnold · Real Madrid · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRayan Cherki · Manchester City · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 54′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRodri · Manchester City · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRayan Aït-Nouri · Manchester City · 78′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAntoine Semenyo · Manchester City · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRayan Cherki · Manchester City · 10′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 17′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 17′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 38′ · 0.06 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 47′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarc Guéhi · Manchester City · 55′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 26′ · 0.08 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 50′ · 0.08 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 55′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 55′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Manchester City · 6′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRodri · Manchester City · 26′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRayan Cherki · Manchester City · 3′ · 0.13 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 50′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 69′ · 0.14 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 23′ · 0.25 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 41′ · 0.42 xG · goalVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 28′ · 0.43 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 24′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.61 xG · goalVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 22′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester City: 22 shots, 8 on target, 1.92 xG. Real Madrid: 14 shots, 7 on target, 2.92 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 41′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 22′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 1.92 xG · Real Madrid 2.92 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Manchester City
1Draws
3Real Madrid
Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League3–0
Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League1–2
Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League3–1
Manchester City — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League2–3
Manchester City — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Manchester City favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Manchester City10 matchesReal Madrid12 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/12▲ 2.42 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/12▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.69 xG/matchExpected goals10/12▲ 2.22 xG/match
15.6 shots/matchShots10/12▲ 17.7 shots/match
6.8 shots/matchShots on target10/126.92 shots/match
58.7% ●Possession10/1255.9%
6.3 corners/match ●Corners10/125.83 corners/match
9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1210.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 18 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsManchester CityReal Madrid
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
Head-to-headManchester City — Real Madrid
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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