PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeBayArenaFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayer LeverkusenBayern München
Shots20 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals2.61 xG/match▲1.29 xG/match
Possession45%55%
Corners4 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.88 goals/match1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsBayer Leverkusen · Bayern München18.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayer LeverkusenBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match18.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match10.2 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bayer Leverkusen.

7 days▲Rest daysBayer Leverkusen · Bayern München7.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBayer LeverkusenBayern MünchenBaseline
Rest days7 days7.79 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bayer Leverkusen
0Draws
1Bayern München
Bayern München — Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga3–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayer Leverkusen favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Bayern München in 10 · 4 too close

1.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲3.58 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/26▲0.96 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—
14.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/26▲18.6 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/26▲10.2 shots/match
4.62 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/26▲8.65 shots/match
4.77 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/26▲2.69 shots/match
59.3%Possessionseason · 26/2666.3%
5.04 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/266 corners/match
4.31 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/26▲3.38 corners/match
2.31 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲1.85 cards/match
8.96 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/269.27 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/26▲35%
85%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayer Leverkusen91.7
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayer Leverkusen70.4
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayer Leverkusen67.6
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayer Leverkusen13.9
Bayern München80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen38.9
Bayern München27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen58.3
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayer Leverkusen52.8
Bayern München77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
15.8 shots/matchShots5/515.6 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.8 shots/match
58.4%Possession5/561.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
13.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲17.1 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲8.6 shots/match
59.1%Possession10/1063.5%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/106.3 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls10/109.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
1.88 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲3.58 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲0.96 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
14.1 shots/matchShots26/26▲18.6 shots/match
4.62 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲8.65 shots/match
59.3%Possession26/2666.3%
5.04 corners/matchCorners26/266 corners/match
2.31 cards/matchCards26/261.85 cards/match
8.96 fouls/matchFouls26/269.27 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲3.15 goals/match
0.92 goals/matchGoals allowed13/130.92 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
15.8 shots/matchShots13/13▲16.8 shots/match
5.54 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲8.15 shots/match
60.6%Possession13/1366.1%
5.85 corners/matchCorners13/135.15 corners/match
2.23 cards/matchCards13/132.31 cards/match
9.08 fouls/matchFouls13/139.23 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayer LeverkusenBayern München
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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