UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 10 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeGewiss StadiumFull-time recap

Atalanta

WLLLW

1–6Full-time recap

FC Bayern München

WLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atalanta	FC Bayern München
Shots	11 shots/match	25 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.68 xG/match	4.58 xG/match▲
Possession	31%	69%
Corners	2 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Atalanta: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.10 xG. FC Bayern München: 25 shots, 13 on target, 4.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 1.10 xG · FC Bayern München 4.67 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Atalanta have a visible home split

moderate

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	16 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · FC Bayern München18.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Atalanta	FC Bayern München	Baseline
Shots	13.8 shots/match	18.2 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	12 shots/match	10 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

50.2%▲PossessionAtalanta · FC Bayern München59.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Atalanta	FC Bayern München	Baseline
Possession	50.2%	59.8%	50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 9 · 4 too close

1.36 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/9▲3.11 goals/match

1.73 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/9▲1 goals/match

1.77 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/9▲2.74 xG/match

1.69 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/9▲1.07 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/9▲18.2 shots/match

12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/9▲10 shots/match

4.09 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/9▲8.22 shots/match

5.18 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/9▲3.89 shots/match

50.2%Possessionseason · 11/959.8%

4.09 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/94.89 corners/match

3.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/93.44 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/910.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/922%

64%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/9▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta52.4

FC Bayern München91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta42.8

FC Bayern München94.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta46.3

FC Bayern München86

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta53.6

FC Bayern München70.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta39.3

FC Bayern München44

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta27.4

FC Bayern München60.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta38.4

FC Bayern München72.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.8 goals/match

2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match

1.52 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.48 xG/match

12 shots/matchShots5/5▲17.4 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.2 shots/match

53%Possession5/564.6%

4 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 9 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/9▲3.11 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/9▲1 goals/match

1.9 xG/matchExpected goals10/9▲2.74 xG/match

14.5 shots/matchShots10/9▲18.2 shots/match

4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/9▲8.22 shots/match

51.9%Possession10/959.8%

4.4 corners/matchCorners10/94.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/910.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 9 matches

1.36 goals/matchGoals scored11/9▲3.11 goals/match

1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed11/9▲1 goals/match

1.77 xG/matchExpected goals11/9▲2.74 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShots11/9▲18.2 shots/match

4.09 shots/matchShots on target11/9▲8.22 shots/match

50.2%Possession11/959.8%

4.09 corners/matchCorners11/94.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls11/910.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 5 matches

1.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/5▲3.2 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed6/5▲1.4 goals/match

2.26 xG/matchExpected goals6/5▲2.62 xG/match

16 shots/matchShots6/5▲17 shots/match

4.67 shots/matchShots on target6/5▲8.6 shots/match

49.7%Possession6/556.6%

4.5 corners/matchCorners6/54.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.67 fouls/matchFouls6/510.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/141 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 9home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 11 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4