PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeNew Balance ArenaFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

Udinese

WLLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaUdinese
Shots22 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession68%32%
Corners11 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five shots average is above their season average.

19.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots19.8 shots/match15.1 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Udinese11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaUdineseBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against11.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Atalanta have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.4%▲PossessionAtalanta · Udinese45.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaUdineseBaseline
Possession55.4%45.3%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atalanta
0Draws
1Udinese
Udinese — Atalanta · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Udinese in 0 · 6 too close

1.39 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/281.18 goals/match
0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281.46 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2811.3 shots/match
11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2812.7 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/283.61 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/283.89 shots/match
55.4%Possessionseason · 28/2845.3%
5.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/284.5 corners/match
4.46 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/284.86 corners/match
1.64 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/281.86 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2814.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2821%
82%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2879%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta72.5
Udinese37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta77.5
Udinese39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta65.8
Udinese47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta87.5
Udinese57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta17.5
Udinese57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta92.5
Udinese52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta67.5
Udinese50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.8 shots/match▲Shots5/58.4 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
61.4%Possession5/543.6%
8.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/match▲Shots10/109.4 shots/match
5.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
53.6%Possession10/1043.9%
6.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.39 goals/match▲Goals scored28/281.18 goals/match
0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281.46 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots28/2811.3 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target28/283.61 shots/match
55.4%Possession28/2845.3%
5.96 corners/matchCorners28/284.5 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards28/281.86 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls28/2814.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 14 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored15/141.21 goals/match
0.87 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/141.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.4 shots/match▲Shots15/1410.1 shots/match
5.47 shots/match▲Shots on target15/143.29 shots/match
55.9%Possession15/1444.2%
7.13 corners/matchCorners15/144.57 corners/match
1.27 cards/matchCards15/142 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1413.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.89 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaUdinese
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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